Russia

A collection of 43 posts

AI Fiction

Shadows in the Forest

In 2025, a weakened NATO stands by as a resurgent Russia launches a devastating invasion of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia.

Moldova

A History of Russian Aggression and Interference in Moldova's Post-Soviet Independence

Russian interference in Moldovan affairs has a long and complex history that dates back to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Russia

Russian Propaganda and the Baltic States: A Historical and Contemporary Overview

From the time of the Russian Empire, through the Soviet era and into the post-Soviet period, Russia has employed a range of propaganda techniques to exert influence over the people of the Baltic states.

Russia-Ukraine

Parsing Russia's Dirty-Bomb Warnings

Russian propaganda may be brutally clumsy, often to the point of being comical, but it often serves multiple purposes beyond those obvious in superficial analysis that are worth considering.

Russia

Spotting and Combating Russian Disinformation

Russia's military may be floundering, along with their overt messaging on the war, but their disinformation machine continues to pose a threat in many ways and in many places that receive far too little attention.

Russia-Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine: Prepare for a Long War

Ukraine has won itself some surprising advantages in the early stages of the war but those can fade quickly if Russia settles in and continues to carry out low risk standoff attacks on civilian centers.

Russia-Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine: Where Do We Go From Here?

The war is less than three weeks old and while there may be more good news than expected, thanks to Ukrainian bravery and allied unity, destabilizing chaos could reign at any moment.

Russia-Ukraine

Putin's Nuclear Option

Nuclear escalation isn't a certainty but it is a frighteningly realistic possibility. Putin has both the capability and the ruthlessness to do the unthinkable. Too many have written off his history of clear and aggressive signals on the subject as the common chest thumpings of a dictator.

Russia-Ukraine

Putin Steers Russia Into The Abyss

The alliance is rising to the occasion while Putin's offensive falters and looks to cost him more than he likely expected. The stakes are now astronomically high and Putin will have to double down on a path that leads to destruction or pull back and face a humiliating defeat. He has no good options.

Russia-Ukraine

Is the Russian Military Faltering in Ukraine?

The expected Russian blitzkrieg has not shocked or awed observers and the Ukrainian resistance is inflicting losses on the Russian invaders. Is Russia rolling into this slower than expected or have we overestimated their military might?

Russia-Ukraine

About Those Allied Sanctions

The current sanctions package delivers a body blow to the Russian economy but it isn't the knockout punch that many people were hoping for (and which may not exist anyway). On the bright side the alliance is strengthening and positioning itself well for an extended effort counter to Putin.

Russia-Ukraine

Russia Invades Ukraine

Putin has launched a criminal war based on an unhinged, paranoid interpretation of history and driven by an uncontrolled lust for power. Failing to act risks letting a mafia state grab the reins and steer the world into a dark future.

Russia-Ukraine

Inoculate Yourself Against Russian Disinformation - And Its Amplifiers

With a little effort and objectivity anyone can learn to spot Russian disinformation narratives. They are pervasive, adaptable to any ideology, and increasingly destabilizing. Developing and honing this skill has never been more important.

Russia-Ukraine

On Putin's Speech

China and Russia are intent on destroying and remaking the existing world order. They've even put it in writing [http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5770]. Earlier statements might have attempted to cast that aspiration in a slightly more positive light than today's speech [http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/

Russia-Ukraine

Tracking NATO during the Ukraine-Russia Crisis

NATO, as one would expect, has been persistently and relentlessly targeted by the Russian disinformation machine. That's not really surprising. However, this activity has swelled in recent years (for other targets as well) and it can be difficult to cut through the disinformation and organic noise that exists across millions

Covert Contact

Shortwave Numbers Stations

Scot Terban joined me to discuss the use of shortwave numbers stations, recently declassified KGB investigative techniques for identifying recipients of those broadcasts, and how shortwave has changed with the introduction of the internet.

Counterintelligence

Election Threats and Disrupting Chinese Espionage

In this episode we discuss the recent report for Microsoft that details Russian, Chinese, and Iranian attacks on individuals and organizations tied to our presidential campaigns and the recent move to revoke the visas of more than 1,000 Chinese grad students and researchers

Counterintelligence

French Officer Busted Spying on NATO for GRU & Other Espionage Cases

William Tucker joins me to discuss two high profile cases this week, sloppy Chinese tradecraft, and why it always pays to visit the FBI before the FBI visits you.

Covert Contact

Spying for Russia: The Peter Debbins Case

William Tucker joins me again to look into yesterday’s indictment of Peter Rafael Dzibinski Debbins, a former Green Beret alleged to have worked for Russian intelligence for over a decade.

William J. Tucker

Counterintelligence Chat: Alexei Navalny & Alexander Ma

William Tucker returns to look at the apparent poisoning of Alexei Navalny and yet another Chinese espionage case, this time involving Alexander Ma. It’s a classic case, with a Hawaii connection, and there’s likely more interesting details to come.

Covert Contact

A Pardon for Edward Snowden?

William Tucker returns to discuss the Edward Snowden case after President Trump made remarks on the case that sparked new speculation about a potential pardon.

Covert Contact

Chinese Spies and Russian Honey Traps

William J. Tucker returns for our regular Thursday evening counterintelligence chat. We start off by discussing the resource challenges in addressing Chinese espionage but quickly pivot to thoughts on Russian cases, honey traps, and more.

Covert Contact

The Poisoning of Sergei Skripal

Fred Burton joined me shortly after the attack on Sergei Skripal. We look at the many implications of this brazen attack, security issues surrounding it, and the need for a serious response.

Covert Contact

North Korean Cryptocurrency Ops

In episode 91 security researcher and Stratfor Global Fellow Scot Terban (AKA Krypt3ia) joins me to discuss North Korea's sophisticated exploitation of cryptocurrency.

Covert Contact

Beyond Russia: Overlooked Counterintelligence Threats

Russian intelligence presents a significant challenge for the United States but it is far from the only threat. There are dozens of nations and non-state actors actively collecting against us at any given time.