Russia-Ukraine

Is the Russian Military Faltering in Ukraine?

The expected Russian blitzkrieg has not shocked or awed observers and the Ukrainian resistance is inflicting losses on the Russian invaders. Is Russia rolling into this slower than expected or have we overestimated their military might?

John W. Little

• 6 min read
Is the Russian Military Faltering in Ukraine?
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Don't get me wrong. Ukraine is in serious, serious trouble. But the sloppiness, outdated (or just plain dumb) tactics on display, and surprising missteps have surprised many analysts who expected a better showing even with awareness of the Russian military's many shortcomings.

Shock and Awe it ain't:

It looks like frustration is being felt in the Kremlin:

Allied assessments of the Russian military's performance aren't much better - but they also reveal a key point; Russia has not yet fully committed its resources:

And while you might be tempted to dismiss allied government assessments as disinformation or biased we have been able to see elements of this play out on video and some of the tactics, or logistical issues, on display have been baffling:

How do you fail at logistics when you share a giant land border with your objective and you've clearly planned an assault months in advance? As @thegrugq noted It's the Russian way:

Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli - War on the Rocks
Russia’s military buildup along the border with Ukraine has clearly gotten the attention of policymakers from Kiev to Washington, D.C. CIA Director Bill
War on the RocksAlex Vershinin

Anyway, the Ukrainians are bravely holding the line and delaying Russian advances where they can:

Wins and losses can be difficult to tally, and they are obviously prone to manipulation, but Ukraine is clearly dealing some damage:

None of this should lead you to believe that Ukraine has any advantages here. They have few, if any. However, delaying Russian progress is essential. Ukrainians need to buy time and increase the cost for Russia, in terms of weapons systems and men lost, to give the international community, sanctions, and other efforts time to bite and, ultimately, to incentivize Putin to to seek a way out before all is lost. Every day that Kyiv stands is a victory for Ukraine.

More help is on the way:

All good news, but I'll leave you with this important reminder:

And this, especially this:

Ukraine may fall but Russia has already lost.

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