Putin Steers Russia Into The Abyss
The alliance is rising to the occasion while Putin's offensive falters and looks to cost him more than he likely expected. The stakes are now astronomically high and Putin will have to double down on a path that leads to destruction or pull back and face a humiliating defeat. He has no good options.

The first round of sanctions were an impressive show of allied unity. However, they weren't as devastating as many were hoping for. Just 24 hours ago there were still clear signs of foot dragging from the Germans and others. I said then, and still maintain now, that at this stage allied unity matters above all else - even the strength of the sanctions. That's why this sudden (and absolutely warranted) surge into more extreme measures is so impressive.
It's clear that the magnitude of the Russian threat has hit home. This isn't an emotion driven show of solidarity for Ukraine (although it is often presented that way). This is recognition that Putin presents an immediate and credible threat to the world order. Every allied nation has skin in this game and they are starting to act like it. Nobody gets out of this without having to pick a side. Just a few hours ago Germany made their position quite clear:
The Russian invasion marks a turning point. It is our duty to support Ukraine to the best of our ability in defending against Putin's invading army. That is why we are delivering 1000 anti-tank weapons and 500 #Stinger missiles to our friends in #Ukraine.
— Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz (@Bundeskanzler) February 26, 2022
This was a historic announcement:
JUST IN: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces Germany is dropping its historic position of not providing lethal military aid to conflict zones, saying Russia's "invasion marks a turning point." https://t.co/DTzO3ooAJ0
— ABC News (@ABC) February 26, 2022
But there was more:
Germany's government plans to allocate €100 billion for defense spending in 2022, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced.
— DW News (@dwnews) February 27, 2022
"From now on, more than 2% of our GDP will be invested in our defense," he said: https://t.co/eTNHdM3wdP pic.twitter.com/sJj4Uuw5gx
“We are in a new age”.
— Michaela Kuefner (@MKuefner) February 27, 2022
“Putin has created a new reality that requires a clear answer”. Germany to deliver weapons.
“This war will prove to be a catastrophe for Russia” through sanctions.
“We accept the challenge” posed by Putin.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz addresses Parliament pic.twitter.com/PqU8QMB5lo
Merz to Putin: "Enough is enough. Game over".
— Thorsten Benner (@thorstenbenner) February 27, 2022
CDU/CSU opposition leader started his speech as statesman offering joint action with government. Strong criticism of🇩🇪 Putin apologists as "useful idiots". Ends as rowdy opposition leader going against new debt & Ostermärsche. pic.twitter.com/JTZ2WhuWKP
Olaf Scholz is changing decades of German foreign policy in a single speech. Russia went too far and now Germany is waking up. Incredible.
— Marcel Dirsus (@marceldirsus) February 27, 2022
The @OlafScholz speech was strong and utterly unlike anything I have ever heard in Germany in my lifetime. Scholz even looked a little startled when it was done. When he returned to his chair, he had to be told to place his face mask back on.
— Amanda Rivkin (@amandarivkin) February 27, 2022
And it isn't just Germany. There are other less visible but still historic shifts underway:
#Greece sending military aid to #Ukraine today with two Greek air force C-130 planes via Poland.
— Yannis Koutsomitis (@YanniKouts) February 27, 2022
Huge policy shift by Greece. #Russia has destroyed decades of Greek-Russian relations.
We're seeing real unity and real leadership across a block of dozens of nations with competing priorities and risks and it is, quite frankly, surprising.
🇩🇪 It is hard to overestimate how much Putin’s attack on Ukraine changed Germany.
— Michael Knigge (@kniggem) February 26, 2022
Less than a week ago Nord Stream 2 was still alive, delivering lethal weapons to Ukraine taboo & cutting Russia out of Swift out of the question.
Putin’s invasion changed Germany.
Zeitenwende.
Which brings us to the next surprise, an extremely rapid and significant escalation of the sanctions package:

First, we commit to ensuring that a certain number of Russian banks are removed from SWIFT.⁰
— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) February 26, 2022
It will stop them from operating worldwide and effectively block Russian exports and imports.
Second, we will paralyse the assets of Russia’s central bank.
— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) February 26, 2022
This will freeze its transactions.
And it will make it impossible for the Central Bank to liquidate its assets. pic.twitter.com/8H9eWkNCW9
And finally, we will work to prohibit Russian oligarchs from using their financial assets on our markets.
— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) February 26, 2022
Putin embarked on a path aiming to destroy Ukraine.
But what he is also doing, in fact, is destroying the future of his own country. pic.twitter.com/bcygxFjeyG
Again, this fight is much bigger than Ukraine and it will rage as long as Putin is in power. We'll have to fight this on two tracks. First, we must head off an immediate threat to Ukraine with all means short of kinetic. The second, and more challenging task, is to marshal the foresight and fortitude required to build an alliance capable of sacrificing self-interest and staring down a madman with 6,000 nuclear weapons until he is no longer in power.
We're off to a good start. We still have non-kinetic levers that we can pull. That's important because Russia is unlikely to reverse course soon and we still have alliance building to do. But with these enhanced measures, Putin has already doomed the entire Russian economy. Businesses will fail, industry will be crippled, their already faltering military will rapidly diminish, the ability to project power and buy influence will fade, hundreds of billions of dollars in assets will be frozen or seized. Fear has already gripped Russia:
Bank runs have started from the very first day of sanctions and have accelerated over the weekend. https://t.co/JTYjsjb54L
— Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦 (@elinaribakova) February 27, 2022
Yes, China is still a wildcard that could potentially offer some shelter but at this rate it is unlikely to be enough. And what will the Kremlin have to sacrifice for that support if it is offered? Everything? Russia may have thought they were entering into their recent pact with China as a co-equal partner set on world domination but right now they're on a path that will have them looking more like a Chinese client state in a few years.
#Chinese banks turning the back to #Russia: this is huge if fully confirmed https://t.co/U7xVfxiNfI
— Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞 (@Aligarciaherrer) February 26, 2022
This is a way for China to make Russia more dependent, forcing Russia into a new COMECOM but Russia is not the hub but the spoke. Not good for Russia. They need dollars
— Alicia GarciaHerrero 艾西亞 (@Aligarciaherrer) February 27, 2022
That pact is already starting to look more and more like an epic double cross.
Here are a few more takes from Twitter:
To cripple a major country’s central bank is totally wild, and unprecedented. Particularly when that country is already facing a major economic and financial crisis. Perhaps difficult for those not versed in monetary and financial policy to comprehend just how significant it is.
— Steven Hamilton (@SHamiltonian) February 26, 2022
There is so much focus on blocking Russia from SWIFT. The vow today to block the Russian central bank from its reserves is almost certainly far more damaging to Moscow. This is a very big deal.
— Paul Sonne (@PaulSonne) February 27, 2022
Going after the Russian Central Bank is huge. Bigger even than SWIFT. Administration didn't want to go there but is moving fast in response to the gravity of Putin's war on Ukraine. Getting G7 to move on this package shows depth of West's anger. https://t.co/5aXGHcTZhP
— Daniel Fried (@AmbDanFried) February 26, 2022
We are crippling Putin's war machine. Huge measures announced by @vonderleyen 🇪🇺 & partners: no more #SWIFT for big 🇷🇺 banks. Asset paralysis of #Russia’s central bank. Keeping oligarchs away from our markets. Pressure will be turned up & up, incl on complicit Belarus regime. https://t.co/uZ0qfUa5Bc
— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) February 27, 2022
At an absolute minimum 39% of Russia's Central Bank reserves ($630bn) appear to have been frozen.
— Jake Cordell (@JakeCordell) February 26, 2022
If Japan does the same will take it up to half.
Caveat: data is 8 months old because CBR publishes with a heft delay to keep some secrecy. pic.twitter.com/c02RrD9MCI
My guess is also that energy for now continues.
— Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦 (@elinaribakova) February 26, 2022
Multilateral sanctions on central bank sanction, SDN/SWIFT on key systemic banks, together with no access to makers will have a significant cumulative effect.
Russia’s economy could have dealt with one shock, not all at once. https://t.co/WgRYTYbTCU
Despite all of this, and the suffering that will be felt across Russia (by completely innocent Russian citizens), Putin is unlikely to pull out of this dive soon:
He’s going to escalate and accept the backlash as a cost of doing business.
— Eric L. Robinson (@UticaEric) February 26, 2022
Whether other stakeholders in Russian industry, intelligence services, and the military agree that it’s just a cost of doing business is the X. https://t.co/A2ySKrSj2s
Putin is ruthless and he clearly knows how to hold onto power but I don't know how he will sleep at night knowing that he's bankrupted every other ruthless man in Russia.