Is the Russian Military Faltering in Ukraine?
The expected Russian blitzkrieg has not shocked or awed observers and the Ukrainian resistance is inflicting losses on the Russian invaders. Is Russia rolling into this slower than expected or have we overestimated their military might?
Don't get me wrong. Ukraine is in serious, serious trouble. But the sloppiness, outdated (or just plain dumb) tactics on display, and surprising missteps have surprised many analysts who expected a better showing even with awareness of the Russian military's many shortcomings.
Shock and Awe it ain't:
Let's just be honest here... if this was an US led military invasion, we'd still be firmly in the "Blow shit up from 1000 miles away" phase and not a single ground force would have crossed the border yet.
— John Score (@JScoreForever) February 25, 2022
Russia is fighting this war with tactics that more resemble WW2.
Russian air force seems to be unable to conduct effective night operations as they start their bombing at sunrise. https://t.co/f94Rr91d10
— Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) February 27, 2022
It looks like frustration is being felt in the Kremlin:
BREAKING: US has indications that Russians are “increasingly frustrated” with lack of progress in Ukraine invasion, especially in the north: senior defense official
— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) February 26, 2022
U.S. has no indications that Russia has taken over any city in Ukraine or achieved air superiority.
Allied assessments of the Russian military's performance aren't much better - but they also reveal a key point; Russia has not yet fully committed its resources:
Breaking News: Russian forces have lost momentum in the invasion of Ukraine, a senior Defense Department official said. But Pentagon officials warned that as of Friday morning Russia had sent into Ukraine only 30% of its troops amassed at the border. https://t.co/cEIC2JspAL
— The New York Times (@nytimes) February 25, 2022
UK says Russia plans to take whole of Ukraine but is failing https://t.co/iduJ6kUyhx pic.twitter.com/rIPl2Omej4
— Reuters (@Reuters) February 25, 2022
And while you might be tempted to dismiss allied government assessments as disinformation or biased we have been able to see elements of this play out on video and some of the tactics, or logistical issues, on display have been baffling:
A brazen heliborne assault to take Hostomel airport with a small airborne element was a puzzling move. I doubt the goal was to land more airborne at a contested airport easily covered by artillery and MLRS. Likely they expected to hold out for ground reinforcements. 3/
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) February 25, 2022
Multiple videos on social media of Russian military out of fuel, food and stuck on highways pic.twitter.com/UTKLmTJf38
— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) February 26, 2022
How do you fail at logistics when you share a giant land border with your objective and you've clearly planned an assault months in advance? As @thegrugq noted It's the Russian way:
Anyway, the Ukrainians are bravely holding the line and delaying Russian advances where they can:
⚡️Zelensky posts another video filmed in central Kyiv.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 26, 2022
"There's a lot of fake information online that I call on our army to lay down arms, and that there's evacuation," he said.
"I'm here. We won't lay down our arms. We will defend our state." pic.twitter.com/VKVY4XRUip
#BREAKING Ukraine 'repulsed' Russian attack on main Kyiv avenue: army pic.twitter.com/hFZmKdfSdl
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) February 26, 2022
“Russian warship, go f--- yourself.”
— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) February 25, 2022
The @washingtonpost has verified the authenticity of the viral audio clip of Ukrainian border guards staring down the Russian military shortly before the Ukrainians were killed.
With @PaulSonne https://t.co/OjK3JKbbiY
⚡️BREAKING: Russia’s forces have entered the Obolon district in Kyiv, where the Ukrainian military is currently fighting them. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry ask residents not to leave their house and prepare Molotov cocktails. The district is approximately 10 km from central Kyiv.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 25, 2022
Two US officials confirmed that Ukraine shot down a second Il-76 transport aircraft tonight. If true, this would be a really significant mistake for the Russian military, and possibly the worst loss of life for the Russian Airborne Forces since the 2nd Chechen War. https://t.co/6z2UtWKsDL
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) February 26, 2022
Взятий в полон 🇷🇺 окупант! pic.twitter.com/0axWYyHZXv
— ARMED FORCES 🇺🇦 (@ArmedForcesUkr) February 26, 2022
After this night, social media are overflowing with videos of captured invaders. Mostly they look young, inexperienced and demoralized. #StandWithUkraine #RussiaGoHome pic.twitter.com/2FlAgxJMtM
— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) February 26, 2022
I am so fucking proud of my country’s Air Force 🇺🇦
— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) February 25, 2022
The fate of so many depends on so few. pic.twitter.com/nxsEIKZ1jW
Ukrainians resist! The whole nation resists. Current cocktail parties in Ukraine be like. #ArmUkraine #CloseTheSky #BanRussiafromSwift pic.twitter.com/F845XCjtQD
— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) February 26, 2022
Surreal, nauseating and dystopian to open your eyes each morning and desperately claw for a phone to learn if the capital and President of your birth country survived the night.
— Dmitry Grozoubinski (@DmitryOpines) February 26, 2022
Crying openly because the first message on my phone today was "Good Morning! We're Holding!!" pic.twitter.com/AyW7x2Wk0q
🇺🇦 DPM Iryna Vereshchuk: Ukraine has asked the International Committee of the Red Cross to help evacuate bodies of the dead 🇷🇺 soldiers from Ukraine to Russia. “There are thousands of bodies of 🇷🇺 invaders. We appeal to ICRC to step in with this humanitarian mission”, she said.
— MFA of Ukraine 🇺🇦 (@MFA_Ukraine) February 26, 2022
Wins and losses can be difficult to tally, and they are obviously prone to manipulation, but Ukraine is clearly dealing some damage:
For more details about Russia's losses so far check our story:https://t.co/mHWzSLEt1L pic.twitter.com/GDOscuxYIY
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 26, 2022
Ukrainian forces did more than hold on last night. They gained ground against the Russians in a few key areas. Word was this plant was in Russian hands just an hour or two ago. Incredible. https://t.co/LHi7vOSnrG
— Kaz Weida (@kazweida) February 26, 2022
None of this should lead you to believe that Ukraine has any advantages here. They have few, if any. However, delaying Russian progress is essential. Ukrainians need to buy time and increase the cost for Russia, in terms of weapons systems and men lost, to give the international community, sanctions, and other efforts time to bite and, ultimately, to incentivize Putin to to seek a way out before all is lost. Every day that Kyiv stands is a victory for Ukraine.
More help is on the way:
Rare tweet in French of 🇺🇦 Pres. Zelensky after his call with 🇫🇷 Pres. Macron, thanking him for his support notably regarding #SWIFT, the personal sanctions against Putin and the delivery of defensive weapons. “A true friend of Ukraine, France is with us in the darkest times”. https://t.co/sanGBS9XKC
— Pierre Morcos (@morcos_pierre) February 25, 2022
The Netherlands to send 200 stingers to Ukraine. https://t.co/peyaYuIOhQ
— Harald Doornbos (@HaraldDoornbos) February 26, 2022
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said some of the 30 allies announced the type of weapons that they would supply Ukraine, including air defenses, without giving details https://t.co/khVyPZlK3U pic.twitter.com/Q6MO0QQKwB
— Reuters (@Reuters) February 26, 2022
Another call with my American friend and counterpart @SecBlinken on the need to use all US influence on some hesitant European countries in order to ban Russia from SWIFT. We also discussed further supply of defensive weapons to Ukraine.
— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) February 25, 2022
All good news, but I'll leave you with this important reminder:
The one thing I will add to my earlier thread, is that we should take care making assumptions on how this war will progress based on the opening 24-48 hours. The Russian military clearly tried something. I think it at best yielded mixed results for them. They will adjust.
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) February 25, 2022
And this, especially this:
#StandwithUkraine: #Ukraine will prevail. #Russia might be able to win militarily, maybe Moscow will create some puppet government in #Kyiv, but it won't last, that I am certain. Putin will be perceived as a war criminal, murderer, and thug. This history is already written. 1/2
— Andrej Matisak (@matisaksk) February 26, 2022
Ukraine may fall but Russia has already lost.