Call For Papers: National Security Assessments Written by AI

Phil Walter of Divergent Options (a frequent guest on Covert Contact) and I were discussing LLMs in the national security space and decided that a call for AI-generated papers would be an interesting experiment.

To be clear, the experiment (from my perspective) isn't to determine whether AI can do this effectively or not. I work on developing and implementing systems that can do this and know for a fact that it can. I'm more interested in seeing how well the Divergent Options & Blogs of War communities can leverage this approach. I also hope that it might motivate some mid-level or senior folks in the natsec space to get moving and start experimenting with this technology.

Submissions are due April 20, 2024. You can find all the details about the project, including their style guide, a sample prompt, and sample output, on Divergent Options. Good luck and check back here for links to published papers.

Published Submissions

Demolishing the Digital Man: The Case for Using AI to Anticipate Counterarguments: Generative AI or large language models (LLMs) are commonly misunderstood tools that have limitations that make them unsuitable for conducting analysis on current events. Despite these limitations, LLMs can be a valuable tool in writing by allowing authors to anticipate potential counterpoints to their own arguments and address those as part of the writing process.

Assessment of The U.S. Military’s Strategic Dilemma: Overinvestment in Countering a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan: The geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific region has become increasingly tense, with Taiwan at the center of attention. The United States, as a key ally of Taiwan, has been closely monitoring China’s military buildup and its aggressive posture. However, the extent to which the U.S. military should invest in countering a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan remains a subject of debate. In this essay, we will explore the reasons behind the U.S. military’s focus on Taiwan, the concept of asymmetric warfare, and why a full-scale Chinese invasion is unlikely.

Nagorno-Karabakh Options: The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region has a long and complex history dating back to the collapse of the Soviet Union. The region, populated predominantly by ethnic Armenians, declared independence from Azerbaijan in 1991, leading to a war that ended in a ceasefire in 1994. However, the dispute over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh has remained a source of tension between the two countries, with periodic outbreaks of violence. The situation is further complicated by the involvement of regional powers, such as Russia and Turkey, who have their own strategic interests in the South Caucasus.

Assessment of Ideological Convergence Between White Supremacist and Islamist Extremists: This analysis details the ideological crossover between white supremacist and Islamist extremists, focusing on shared tactics, terminology, and mutual legitimization. It examines the adoption of Islamist motifs by white supremacists and discusses the implications for national security, emphasizing the threat of interconnected extremist ideologies.

Assessing the Integration of Artificial Intelligence into National Security Assessments: Integrating AI into national security assessments presents both significant advantages, such as enhanced data processing capabilities, and serious risks, including vulnerability to manipulation and loss of human oversight. A balanced approach that combines AI’s strengths with human judgment is essential for maintaining national security integrity.

Cyber in Area Denial in Littoral Environments: Littoral environments, the areas where land meets sea, are increasingly contested as potential flashpoints for conflict. Adversaries seek to deny access, impede freedom of navigation, and project power in these complex battlegrounds. Cyber operations offer a means to disrupt adversary capabilities, gain an asymmetric advantage, and support conventional operations in these critical zones.

Using Cyber Operations to Achieve Cognitive Domain Impact: The information environment has become a contested battleground where state and non-state actors vie for control over narratives and perceptions. Disinformation, propaganda, and cyberattacks target the cognitive domain, seeking to undermine trust, sow division, and influence decision-making within nations. Foreign adversaries exploit vulnerabilities within social media platforms and emerging technologies to manipulate public opinion and disrupt democratic processes.

Chinese Activities in Kiribati: The island nation of Kiribati, located in the central Pacific Ocean, has recently become a focal point of geopolitical competition. China’s increasing activities in Kiribati, including infrastructure development, economic investments, and military presence, have raised concerns among the United States and its allies. Kiribati’s strategic location makes it an essential outpost for power projection and maritime dominance in the Pacific region.