Category Archives: Weather

Guest Post: Is War in the Sixth Domain the End of Clausewitz?

Chloe Diggins & Clint Arizmendi are Research & Analysis Officers at the Australian Army’s Land Warfare Studies Centre. The views expressed are their own and do not reflect those of the Australian Department of Defence or the Australian Government.

Warfare takes place across four domains: land, air, sea and space. Recently – in search of a comparative advantage over the enemy – cyberspace was included as the fifth domain. In the future, this will no longer be the case, the human mind will be the sixth and perhaps the only domain of warfare.

Current technologies are shaping our ability to not only influence, but also to penetrate the human mind. As such, warfare is moving into information spaces such as cyberspace, as well as into the mind itself – through the emerging technology of the Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) as we recently argued on Wired. However, unlike the widely criticised COIN strategy, this is more than just winning hearts and minds. War in the sixth domain is about controlling the human mind, either by shaping emotional and cognitive responses, or by outright exploitation of man-machine technology. It is, in a sense, coercive persuasion through internal and external stimuli.

Sound like something from a science fiction movie? Perhaps; but the future is not as far away as we think. Information operations (IO) – the effort to inform and shape perceptions, attitudes, behaviours, and understanding through the circulation of information – have always been a pivotal part of warfare.

Traditionally, an IO campaign was based on targeted information filtered through one-way communication channels. However, the spread of online networking technologies and the digitalisation of global news media means that the public now has greater access than ever before to events happening across the world, and can engage with them in real-time. As a result, we are seeing an increased emphasis on real-time IO unfolding across interactive multimedia platforms as forces such as Israel and Hamas compete to influence the human mind and dominate both public and private information and communication spaces.

So far, real-time IO using online networking technologies have relied on sympathisers seeking out or reaffirming information amongst their like-minded community. This means they take an active role in accessing and receiving an IO message. In the sixth domain of warfare, this role will be more passive as recipients are delivered messages involuntarily. By harnessing the technology behind personalised advertising, combatants could implant ideas and messages directly into the minds of their targets, eliminating any potential barriers between sender and receiver.

Imagine impressionable targets waiting at a bus stop where high-definition cameras scan their faces, retrieve their biometric details (which, presumably have been linked through a number of online networking technologies) and subsequently deliver a customised message to a nearby digital advertising board. Or perhaps, using audio spotlight technology, combatants could target potential recruits by delivering a message inside their head – a message that no one else can hear. Each target would receive a personalised message that accounted for their gender, socio-economic status, political background, personal biases, and social network characteristics. In a world in which we are increasingly “plugged in”, this kind of personalisation is not nearly as farfetched as it sounds. These technologies are well and truly here, and it’s not inconceivable that they’ll be used as effective real-time IO tactics to influence what people think and feel about conflicts happening at home and abroad.

If future technologies will allow us to intensify IO campaigns to influence minds, what might such technologies mean for the manipulation of minds when we use it concurrently with BCI?

In August of this year, the 21st USENIX Security Symposium took place in Washington. In addition to the usual contemporary topics of interest to IT security professionals such as password protection and cyber-security education, there was one additional topic that has significant implications for the future of defence and national security: “The Brain”.

What was once the purview of futurists and conspiracy theorists has now become a startling reality – the creation of tools and methods to harness the power, thoughts and desires of the brain to undertake both simple and complex operations. With this new reality comes new dangers. Researchers at the Symposium demonstrated how easily the brain could be hacked for private and secret information using cheap accessible technology designed for video games and keyboards. Essentially, technology that has been developed to enhance our lives may prove to be one of our biggest liabilities as our understanding of the brain significantly increases, leading us to question what one blogger recently referred to as the need for neurosecurity.

Whether it is a human controlling a metal exoskeleton or monkeys controlling a robotic arm, the increased technological capacity for brains and computers to interact is an area for further exploration, and it holds implications for the future of warfare, especially if exploited.

Control of the sixth domain would effectively mean that domination of the enemy’s mind both externally (IO) and internally (BCI) is possible, thereby altering the individual into a mind-controlled weapon. The risks here – if successfully applied in a nefarious manner – are that such individuals would have the ability to kill, maim or sabotage without conscience, but no capacity to question the command to do so – even if it contravened the Law of War or the Rules of Engagement.

Clausewitz argued that the application or threat of violence was the most effective method of coercion. A successful combination of IO and BCI manipulation (the sixth domain) would reduce war to just phase zero, eliminating the necessity for traditional warfare across the former five domains.

Hurricane Sandy – Damage Assessment and Recovery Live Streams

ccsandyrec Hurricane Sandy   Damage Assessment and Recovery Live Streams

Sandy lived up to the hype and extensive rescue and recovery operations are underway this morning. I have updated the Hurricane Sandy Monitor to reflect this and to better track the relief effort. The monitor now tracks:

  • Hurricane Sandy – Any mention of the storm.
  • Power Issues – Around 7 million people are without electricity this morning and may be so for many days.
  • Disaster Relief – Discussions about the relief effort.
  • Donations Needed – Calls for assistance and support.
  • Casualties – Deaths and injuries related to the storm.
  • Damage – Any discussions about flooded areas, fires, etc.
  • Videos/Photos – Media related to the storm.

You can launch the monitor from the Covert Contact demo site by clicking on the big green button below:

start button Hurricane Sandy   Damage Assessment and Recovery Live Streams

Subscriptions to Covert Contact’s array of over 140 topic monitors and 400 live social media streams are available for only $10 per month.

Hurricane Sandy Live Streams – Widescreen Monitor

ccsssandywide Hurricane Sandy Live Streams   Widescreen Monitor

Sandy is shaping up to become a truly dangerous storm:

“It’s going to affect millions and cost billions,” he said. The storm will cause flooding and power outages that could last for days or weeks.

The storm is an unusual combination of a tropical weather system with a cold air mass that Moss called a “truly historic” event and said would act more like a nor’easter than a hurricane.

Most jurisdictions in the area – New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia – declared states of emergency and set up shelters in anticipation of the storm.

The potential for deadly storm surge is of particular concern:

This afternoon’s 3:30 pm EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy’s winds at a modest 2.8 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was record high: 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed since 1969, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy is now forecast to bring a near-record storm surge of 6 – 11 feet to Northern New Jersey and Long Island Sound, including the New York City Harbor. This storm surge has the potential to cause many billions of dollars in damage if it hits near high tide at 9 pm EDT on Monday. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month. This will add another 2 – 3″ to water levels. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the peak storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. Sandy’s storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13′ and a storm tide of 9.5′ above MLLW to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 – 12″ shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy’s storm surge is expected to be at least a foot higher than Irene’s. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening’s high tide at 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City’s subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 50% chance that Sandy’s storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.

I am rolling out a widescreen Hurricane Sandy Monitor to both subscribers and demo users as a public service. This monitor looks at mentions of the storm, discussions about storm surge, wind damage, flooding, causalities, warnings, and links to related videos and photos. Subscribers can access the monitor via the main menu now. If you are not a subscriber just hit the big green button below to launch the demo and access the monitor.

start button Hurricane Sandy Live Streams   Widescreen Monitor

Subscriptions to Covert Contact’s array of over 140 topic monitors and 400 live social media streams are available for only $10 per month.

Hurricane Sandy Live Streams

ccsssandy Hurricane Sandy Live Streams

Update:
I’ve made a seven column widescreen monitor for hurricane Sandy available to the public.

Original Post:
This could be a very significant weather event:

Confidence continues to grow that Sandy will be a major threat to portions of the U.S. East Coast.

..Though we feel that it’s likely Sandy will hit some portion of the Northeast or Mid-Atlantic coast, there remains uncertainty with the exact timing, location and magnitude of the worst impacts. The forecast involves a rare, complex atmospheric setup that will allow the system to pivot back to the northwest into the region rather than simply moving out to sea.

..What kind of impacts are we talking about?

Destructive winds, heavy rain, major coastal flooding and beach erosion would pummel portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions between later Sunday and Tuesday of next week. Of course, the high winds would extend inland, with the potential for downed trees and powerlines. Widespread power outages could last for days.

This setup could even wrap in just enough cold air on its western edge to produce wet snow, possibly heavy, in some parts of the central Appalachians (mountains of West Virginia and Pennsylvania).

Residents from New England to New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Virginia should remain vigilant and begin to prepare for Sandy’s impact.

I’ve just added a Hurricane Sandy Monitor to Covert Contact. It tracks mentions of the storm, related warnings, and discussions about damage, surge, flooding, and casualties. Subscribers can find it under the “Events” section of the main menu.