To Provide Tips in the Investigation: If you have visual images, video, and/or details regarding the explosions along the Boston Marathon route and elsewhere, submit them on https://bostonmarathontips.fbi.gov. No piece of information or detail is too small.

You can also call 1-800-CALL-FBI (1-800-225-5324), prompt #3, with information.

Source: FBI.gov

The Boston Bombing Witch Hunt Bags Another Innocent Kid – On Monday, the New York Post doggedly stuck to its claim that 12 were killed in the Boston Marathon bombings. On Tuesday, CNN (among others) reported that a suspect had been arrested, before walking that all the way back. Today, the Post wrests back the “what the fuck are you doing?” crown by putting two “potential suspects” on the cover of the newspaper. They are most assuredly innocent.

Boston Police Commander: “I need somebody up there to get on social media…” – Shortly after the IEDs detonated in Boston (at 10:38 in the recording above), an unidentified police commander got on the radio and began giving orders. “We’re going to get the victims out, we’re then going to conduct a sweep with EOD assets… we will then get people out of the restaurants and bars. I need somebody up there to get on social media and let people know what we’re doing here–that we’re sweeping the streets to make sure it’s safe first, and then we’ll get them out of the bars once we get it swept.”

Crowdsourcing the Boston Marathon Bomber – The difference with the Reddit and 4chan crowd-sourcing is that the flow of information is not limited to the individual with information and the feds who receive the tip. Speculation is now published widely, for all to see—a dangerous idea, writes The Atlantic’s Alexis Madrigal. “They are not real cops. They are well-meaning people who have not considered the moral weight of what they’re doing,” he said. “This is vigilantism, and it’s only the illusion that what we do online is not as significant as what we do offline that allows this to go on.”

The Internet Mystery-Solving Machine – a horde of amateur digital-forensic analysts have been poring over every pixel of some of the same raw material as investigators—publicly available high-resolution photos and video of the race, bombing, and aftermath,which has been scattered across the Web and broadcast by news media—hoping to see something that official investigators have not. It’s a human-powered parallel-processing machine, one with overwhelming scale that is constantly churning as it aggregates known information with new data, synthesizing the two to produce highly idiosyncratic analyses. The machine is marked by its intensity, heterogeneous composition, and its odd syntax, in which annotations are made with crude graphics, and arguments are made in the raw language of Internet forums.

Media’s description of search for ‘dark skinned’ Boston Marathon suspect shows ineptitude around race – A reporter’s work is incomplete if the only description they have for a potential suspect – particularly for a crime on the magnitude of the Boston Marathon bombing – is ”dark-skinned.” Time is of the essence. Other U.S. cities and national landmarks have been placed on high alert. If a vigilant public is to help law enforcement put together the pieces of this puzzle, they must have full descriptions, which can include race but must include more.

Obama to visit Boston amid search for suspects seen on video – President Barack Obama was due to visit Boston today to attend a memorial service for victims of the Boston Marathon bombing amid a manhunt for two suspects seen on video taken before two blasts struck near the finish line on Monday.

How Long Does it Take to Catch a Terrorist? – As the country waits for answers about who the terrorist — or terrorists — is, the reality of how long that might take was discussed Tuesday on the PBS NewsHour. Michael Greenberger, director of the University of Maryland’s Center for Health and Homeland Security, said he’s optimistic that they’ll find the perpetrator of the Boston marathon bombings eventually, but possibly not until evidence is painstakingly pored through and analyzed. “I have the unfortunate suspicion that this won’t be solved quickly,” he said in a story posted yesterday.

Social media and the Boston bombings: When citizens and journalists cover the same story – There is a reflexive reaction to pit emergent social media behavior against the traditional journalistic practices and norms. This defensive posture is counterproductive for both sides. Rather than pointing out flaws in order to uphold one model over the other, we should appreciate the interplay between them with a sense of symbiotic dependence that ultimately produces a more participatory, accurate and compelling news cycle.

Give It Arrest - A visiual guide to the CLUSTER$&K of misinformation during Wednesday afternoon’s Boston Marathon bombing news coverage.

Beware bogus Boston Marathon charity websites – One fraudster already tried to dupe the public by setting up a Twitter account minutes after the bombing that claimed to be associated with the Boston Marathon organization. The @_BostonMarathon account promised to donate $1 for every retweet. After users called it out as a fake, Twitter quickly shut the account down — but not before it received more than 50,000 retweets.

Internet Comes Up With 8.5 Million Leads On Potential Boston Bombing Suspect (satire) – While still early in the investigation, experts believe the internet is likely to uncover crucial evidence in the coming hours that will likely result in anywhere between 20 to 30 million more leads on potential bombing suspects.

Follow @Blogsofwar for continuous live updates of this story.

The limits of intelligence collection – U.S. intelligence didn’t pick up any threat stream about Boston or the marathon before the event, nor any terrorist “chatter” about the attack afterward. That doesn’t rule out al-Qaeda involvement, but this attack doesn’t resemble anything the core group or its major affiliates have done in the past. Officials can only speculate at this point about perpetrators. But the early evidence looks more like the work of a lone individual or a small group than that of a larger terror network. If it’s part of a broader terror plot, then it represents a new and cruder approach. Terror attacks that fit the same pattern are the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing, the 1996 pipe bombing at the Atlanta Olympics and the 2011 pipe-bomb plot in Spokane, Wash. In each case, the chief attackers were lone wolves.

Boston bomb investigators can’t decide: Foreign or domestic? – All of the talking heads that discuss this incident and incidents like it, if your experience and your expertise is Middle East terrorism, it has the hallmarks of al Qaeda or a Middle East group,” said former FBI assistant director Tom Fuentes, in a CNN article. He continued: But “if your experience is domestic groups and bombings that have occurred here, it has the hallmarks of a domestic terrorist like Eric Rudolph in the 1996 Atlanta Summer Olympics bombings.”

Local terrorism expert on Boston bombings: ‘Likely domestic, possible lone wolf’ – Dr. Greg Moore is the Director of the Center for Intelligence Studies at Notre Dame College. Moore said there is still an enormous amount of information to be viewed but he believes the attack is domestic terrorism.

Boston Bombing: World Reacts with Flood of Tributes – Users of China’s Twitter-like social media service Weibo reportedly praised the U.S. response to the incident. “In the face of the tragedy, we can learn a lot from the American government, media, businesses and citizens’ kind interactions,” wrote one user, according to the International Business Times.

Experts Skeptical Homegrown Terrorists Were Behind Boston Bombings – But one message from domestic terrorism experts is clear: Most of the evidence points against an antigovernment group being responsible for the attack. Several militia groups, who fiercely and sometimes violently fight to keep their Second Amendment rights, have come out against the bombings in Boston.

Boston Marathon blasts: Investigators eye ‘range of suspects and motives’ – “Importantly, the person who did this is someone’s friend, neighbor, co-worker or relative. We are asking anyone who may have heard someone speak about the marathon, or the date of April 15, in any way that indicated that he or she may have targeted this event to call us,” DesLauriers said.

Reddit Scours Photos in Search of Boston Bombing Suspects – The group, called r/FindBostonBombers, has hundreds of Redditors pointing their collective finger at several unknown people it considers suspicious based on their appearances and backpacks. Law enforcement has said the devices were contained in backpacks or large duffel bags, but authorities have provided no physical description of any suspect.

Boston Marathon bombing victims: Promising lives lost – “She was an incredible woman, always full of energy and hard at work, but never too tired to share her love and a smile with everyone,” the post said. “She was an inspiration to all of us. Please keep her and her family in your thoughts and prayers.” Even without government confirmation that Ms. Lu was killed in the bomb blast on Monday, Chinese Internet sites filled with mournful messages about a woman in her mid-20s whose ambitions took her from a rust-belt hometown of Shenyang to Beijing and then the United States. Her account on Weibo, a Twitter-like microblogging service used by tens of millions of people in China, attracted more than 10,000 messages, mostly of condolence, in the hours after Chinese media reported her death.

China Mourns the Death of a Student in Boston Blast – “You are in heaven now, where there are no bombs,” said one typical message.

Twitter Donates Promoted Trend to ‘One Boston’ – Entertainers, athletes and ordinary citizens aren’t the only ones aiding Boston residents after Monday afternoon’s deadly bombings at the Boston Marathon. Twitter lent a helping hand of its own on Tuesday in the form of a donated promoted trend on the microblogging network.

Alex Jones And His Enablers – As Jones Pushes Conspiracies About The Boston Bombings, A Look At The Politicians, Media Figures, And Outlets Who Validate Him.

Why One Californian Bought a Domain Name to Stave Off Boston Conspiracy Theorists – I saw some pretty unbelievable and disgusting statements being made almost immediately. So, I went back to my desk and quickly bought the domain for BostonMarathonConspiracy dot com and and posted a simple message saying that I purchased it only to make sure the kooks don’t get it.

Why the Conspiracy Theorists Will Have a Tough Time With Boston – The attacks in Boston lack a number of the factors they need to concoct a really compelling conspiracy theory. They’re always on the lookout for a “false flag” attack, a government-run ruse intended to bring public opinion in line. In reality, the last example they can point to of this is the Reichstag Fire; in fiction, it’s usually fun to point to Watchmen. But the Boston bombings are going to present some challenges.

The Saudi Marathon Man – What made them suspect him? He was running—so was everyone. The police reportedly thought he smelled like explosives; his wounds might have suggested why. He said something about thinking there would be a second bomb—as there was, and often is, to target responders. If that was the reason he gave for running, it was a sensible one. He asked if anyone was dead—a question people were screaming. And he was from Saudi Arabia, which is around where the logic stops. Was it just the way he looked, or did he, in the chaos, maybe call for God with a name that someone found strange?

Follow @Blogsofwar for continuous live updates of this story.

Downtown Boston Remains a Crime Scene – Downtown streets that normally would be clogged at rush hour were largely deserted Tuesday except for a cold wind and a few runners out for a morning jog. “It’s very surreal,” said Mary Ollinger, 32, who works at Wentworth Institute of Technology. “The streets are empty and the Common is filled with media trucks.”

Boston Marathon Explosions: Revere Apartment Searched – Police and federal agents searched an apartment building on Ocean Avenue in nearby Revere late Monday night in connection with the bombings. Agents searched this complex for 9 hours after the marathon bombing. CBS News Senior Correspondent John Miller reported Tuesday morning the apartment search was related to a man who is reportedly under guard at Brigham and Women’s Hospital. Miller reported the man is a Saudi national who is in the United States on a student visa. Police and federal officials exit an apartment complex in Revere with a possible connection to the earlier explosions during the Boston Marathon. Several bags were removed from the scene around 2 a.m. Tuesday, but authorities would not comment on the search.

Boston Marathon bombings: Security experts weigh in on potential culprits, motives – Former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge says the absence of intelligence might suggest the attacker is not affiliated with a larger terrorist group: “It may lead to the fact that this was not connected to a major jihadist organization. This might very well may have been a domestic terrorist or lone wolf, as you might want to describe it.”

Twitter and news: The canary down the mine – Twitter has often been touted as the “first with news”. From the miniscule to the massive. From Stephen Fry being stuck in a lift, to the Arab Spring rippling across North Africa, it is the instant source of a story, the first gurgle from a tap. The only way to find out what’s really happening, according to some. But I’m beginning to think that so-called truth is losing some of its polish.

Social Media Shapes Boston Bombings Response – Terrorism experts said the proliferation of photos and video on the web through social media might also help authorities identify the perpetrators of the attack. “All the media provides a tremendous asset for the forensic evaluation of the explosion event,” said Roman. “Authorities can start examining the pictures and tapes looking for individuals near the receptacles where the bombs were found and individuals not fitting the profile of the general spectator can be identified.”

Social media to the forefront in Boston – ‘Authorities have recognized that one [of] the first places people go in events like this is to social media, to see what the crowd is saying about what to do next. And today authorities went to Twitter and directed them to traditional media environments where authorities can present a clear calm picture of what to do next.’

Boston’s tweeters offer aid to marathon runners – Gestures as small as offering a drink of orange juice and use of a home bathroom were recounted on Twitter on Monday in an ongoing online recollection of the fellowship that emerged in the wake of Monday’s devastation.

Public Shaming – Minutes after the explosions, internet tough guys and girls were already pointing the blame and ready to kill.

Follow me on @Blogsofwar for continuous live updates of this story.

Just to start, no I wasn’t there. I wasn’t even in DC on 30 December 2009 when Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi blew himself up taking the reported 7 Americans and 1 Jordanian and 1 Afghan with him.

I was in San Diego for the holidays, visiting family. I remember getting up and coming downstairs to make coffee for myself. Then I must have checked my phone and saw the news.

My mind raced, as I’m sure anyone whose life has been directly tied to the last 10 plus years of war does anytime news like this comes out. Who do I know OCONUS? Who can I call or text? Where can I get the most recent info? Can I get back to Langley to help in any way?

I have known of fellow agents getting injured or killed on duty. The hard part for me was this was a different kind of experience at that time. I never served in the military, so I missed that terrible experience of being just that close to something you can’t directly help or affect change upon.

I felt, and quite literally was, useless at that time. I can’t begin to imagine what those on the ground, in country and back at Langley actually felt. A few hours after I first read the news I was able to get a cryptic SMS back from a colleague who let me know that no one close had been injured or killed in the attack.

A lot has been written, mostly by fellow former Intelligence Officers who likely have years of experience on me, and as equally should know better, about what led to Balawi’s successful suicide attack that day in Khost. You can search online to see the various run downs of who was or was not following tradecraft, or who should or should not have been Chief of Station. My goal is not to try and armchair quarterback anything. Swept up in the craziness that must have been a surging tide of “what if” the Officers on the ground and back at Headquarters pushed to make that meeting happen. Sometimes you push too hard, and chances are those are the times some crazy person will try to blow you up. The term “perfect storm” comes to mind.

This being the 3rd anniversary of this terrible event, I just wanted to share what I took away from everything.

I only knew one Officer killed at Khost, very peripherally. Elizabeth Hanson was a Targeting Officer (officially titled Specialized Skills Officer – Targeting). Very simply, her job was to look for leads to piece together detailed information related to HUMINT targets of interest. I always thought of it as looking for that one piece of thread to pull, that when pulled it unraveled the whole sweater. Balawi was that piece of thread; at least that was the idea.

I went through recruitment at the Agency at a time of flux for Headquarters based officers (HBOs). In fact, I was hired as a Targeting Officer (SSO-­T), but by the time I entered on duty and drove to the back reaches of the Purple lot, I was a Headquarters Based Trainee (HBT).

Like most things in a huge bureaucracy, titles matter. Networking is hugely important in an Agency career and although it seems counter intuitive, its even more important as a headquarters based officer. I found that conversations with new acquaintances usually began with a short bio. What did you do before coming to the Agency? Where are you from? Then always ended up with: What are you? Meaning, what sort of Officer are you. Imagine the fun that could be had by knuckle-­dragging Paramilitary Officers when they ask that last question and were given the response of, “I’m an HBT”…which was followed by a quick deafened response of “HVT!” (high value target). Laughter ensued.

By now quite a few former Agency Officers have detailed recruitment and training, and have even spoken of the rotations that new officers do within headquarters. For the HBT’s, soon to be HBO’s, we did similar rotations, with a certification course related to our final job selection coming right before being home-based in an office.

As part of networking and building a so called “Hall File”, or reputation, the National Clandestine Service’s HR department (HRS) advised us to attend sponsored “brown bag” lunches. These were usually informal (if your idea of informal is crowding into a conference room, in a bad suit eating your Subway sandwich purchased at the Agency Subway counter all the while sitting next to a Group Chief who is talking about how great their office is) events that were used to introduce prospective home-­basing officers to an office, as well as share general information about an office or operation that was being talked about at length.

HRS also pushed the idea of more seasoned HBO’s creating individual mentoring groups for the Staff Operations Officers, Targeting Officers and Collection Management Officers. These were a rotating peer mentoring group that had the goal of helping new HBO’s find their way through the bureaucracy. Sometimes they helped calm nerves, or make introductions to offices of interest, or just shared stories about their jobs. From my memory, I met Elizabeth Hanson at one of these peer meetings for Targeting Officers. I only put it together after meeting one of her former certification instructors during my SOO certification. For whatever reason the Targeting Officers had the more active peer-­?mentoring group at Langley.

Elizabeth Hanson kept a small plaque with a meaningful quote on it at her desk. I know this because I had the same head instructor as her during my certification phase as a SOO. At graduation this instructor related Elizabeth’s story to us, and then tearfully gave us all the same small desk plaque with quote. She asked us to think on the quote and what it meant to us, and to live our lives and careers the way Elizabeth did hers. Its funny, the quote itself is less meaningful than the gesture through someone’s grief at losing a friend.

When onboarding with the Agency, going through initial orientation, class instructors like to try and demystify the Agency for new employees. It would seem obvious that most of us, even when approaching the job with open eyes, have bought into at least some of the romanticism and mystique that surrounds life at the CIA, especially life working under some sort of cover. Maybe it’s for that reason, romanticism, that I’ve held onto my memory of that day at graduation. I find meaning in remembering our fallen colleagues, who right or wrong, gave of their lives in pursuit of something bigger than themselves.

I’ve taken to trying to honor those fallen in some meaningful way. At this point in my Federal career, there isn’t much I can do directly. Instead I choose to think about other fallen colleagues, even those I never worked with directly. I also try and get out and do something meaningful to me. Today I’ll be out honoring the fallen nine by pushing myself through the Crossfit Hero WOD “The Seven”. I do it every year, and the plaque still sits on my desk at work. Always there to remind me what I would attempt if I had no fear of failure. Egging me on to push through the fear.

• Jennifer Lynne Matthews CIA officer, chief of base (Age 45)
• Harold Brown Jr CIA officer (Age 37)
• Elizabeth Hanson CIA officer (Age 30)
• Darren LaBonte CIA officer (Age 35)
• Scott Michael Roberson CIA officer (Age 39)
• Dane Clark Paresi Blackwater Worldwide (Xe) (Age 46)
• Jeremy Wise Blackwater Worldwide (Xe) (Age 35)
• Al Shareef Ali bin Zeid Jordanian intelligence official (Age Undisclosed)
• Arghawan Security director at the base (Age Undisclosed)

10. Ramadan Shallah: Leader of Palestinian Islamic Jihad. His low ranking is because he’s a weak terrorist leader but still has plenty of blood on his petite doll-like hands.

9. Samir Kuntar: Druze member of the PLF in Lebanon who murdered an Israeli policeman, Eliyahu Shahar, 31 year-old Danny Haran, and Haran’s 4-year-old daughter, Einat Haran, whom he killed with blunt force against a rock and for indirectly causing the death of two-year-old Yael Haran by suffocation, as her mother tried to quiet her crying while hiding from Kuntar. In November 2008, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad presented Kuntar with Syria’s highest medal.

8. Mahmoud al-Zahar: Founding father of HAMAS and considered a hard line hawk, even by HAMAS’ standards

7. Mohammed Deif: Commander of HAMAS’ Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades. That’s reason enough.

6. Ali Moussa al-Daduq: Senior Hezbollah advisor captured in Iraq while acting on Iran’s behalf and responsible for the killing of U.S. military personnel in southern Iraq.

5. Ahmed Abu Khattala: Leader of the Benghazi-based Ansar al-Sharia group closely involved in the September 11 assault that killed four Americans including ambassador Christopher Stevens.

4. Hassan Nasrallah: “Secretary-General” of Hezbollah.

3. Hamid Arabnejad: Managing-Director of Mahan Air, the Iranian regime’s airline tasked with ferrying weapons/explosives, IRGC-QF personnel, and mayhem all over the world.

2. Qassam Soleimani: Head of Iran’s IRGC-QF. That’s more than enough reason.

1. Bashar al-Assad: How many lives could have been saved by rubbing out this man Christopher Hitchens once famously dubbed, “The human toothbrush”. Sic Semper Tyrannus.

Michael Ross was born in Canada and served as a soldier in a combat unit of the Israel Defence Forces prior to being recruited as a “combatant,” (a term designating a deep-cover operative tasked with working in hostile milieus) in Israel’s legendary secret intelligence service, the Mossad. In his 13 year career with the Mossad, Ross was also a case officer in Africa and South East Asia for three years, and was the Mossad’s counterterrorism liaison officer to the CIA and FBI for two-and-a-half years. Ross is a published writer and commentator on Near Eastern affairs, intelligence and terrorism. He is the author of The Volunteer: The Incredible True Story of an Israeli Spy on the Trail of International Terrorists. You can follow him on Twitter.

We recommend that no Hamas operatives, whether low level or senior leaders, show their faces above ground in the days ahead.

— IDF (@IDFSpokesperson) November 14, 2012

More than six weeks after the shocking assault on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi — and nearly a month after an FBI team arrived to collect evidence about the attack – the battle-scarred, fire-damaged compound where Ambassador Chris Stevens and another Foreign Service officer lost their lives on Sept. 11 still holds sensitive documents and other relics of that traumatic final day, including drafts of two letters worrying that the compound was under “troubling” surveillance and complaining that the Libyan government failed to fulfill requests for additional security.

You can see photos of those “sensitive” documents here. However, a counter-argument has surfaced:

The emphasis on security at the CIA annex was underscored the day after the attack. With all U.S. personnel evacuated, the CIA appears to have dispatched local Libyan agents to the annex to destroy any sensitive documents and equipment there, even as the consulate compound remained unguarded and exposed to looters and curiosity seekers for weeks, officials said. Documents, including the ambassador’s journal, were taken from the consulate site, and the site proved of little value when Federal Bureau of Investigation agents finally arrived weeks later to investigate.

U.S. officials said they prioritized securing the annex because many more people worked there and they were doing sensitive work, while the consulate, by design, had no classified documents. The American contractor said the top priority was destroying sensitive documents.

This prioritization makes sense but I think most Americans will still be disturbed by our inability to secure the consulate grounds or to find documents relevant to the investigation while journalists continue to pick through the rubble with relative ease.

Monitor developments in this story live with the Covert Contact Benghazi Monitor. Launch it with the big green button below.

The war of words is already pretty intense:

Al Qaeda-linked Islamists in Mali threatened on Saturday to “open the doors of hell” for French citizens if France kept pushing for a war to retake the rebel-held north.

The renewed threats against French hostages and expatriates came ahead of a summit of French-speaking nations in Congo, where President Francois Hollande was expected to urge the rapid deployment of an African-led force to rout the Islamists.

…”If he continues to throw oil on the fire, we will send him the pictures of dead French hostages in the coming days,” said Oumar Ould Hamaha, a spokesman for Islamist group MUJWA, in an apparent reference to four French nationals seized in neighboring northern Niger in 2010.

“He will not be able to count the bodies of French expatriates across West Africa and elsewhere,” Hamaha said by telephone.

Allowing these groups to hold territory and consolidate power is intolerable so intervention is inevitable. Only the timing and scope are in question. The stakes are no doubt high for expats in West Africa but this conflict could reach back to France in the form of terrorism as well. How big is the threat on the European continent? I don’t know but it will be interesting to watch this unfold.

Covert Contact has been monitoring Mali for several months and today I rolled out a seven column widescreen live social media monitor there for this conflict. Additional monitors will probably be added as this escalates.

Maps courtesy of the CIA World Factbook

Mistakes can be forgiven but covering them up, especially when your excuse changes from day to day, points to a much larger problem:

Michael Hayden, former CIA director, and Michael Chertoff, who served as Homeland Security chief, hit out after Biden stunned many in the intelligence community by insisting that the U.S. consulate in Benghazi did not ask for additional security before it was attacked on September 11 – directly contradicting what security officials and diplomats have testified under oath.

The tough joint statement was issued via the Romney campaign. In it they added: ‘Blaming those who put their lives on the line is not the kind of leadership this country needs.’

‘During the Vice Presidential debate, we were disappointed to see Vice President Biden blame the intelligence community for the inconsistent and shifting response of the Obama Administration to the terrorist attacks in Benghazi,’ they said in the statement.

‘Given what has emerged publicly about the intelligence available before, during, and after the September 11 attack, it is clear that any failure was not on the part of the intelligence community, but on the part of White House decision-makers who should have listened to, and acted on, available intelligence. Blaming those who put their lives on the line is not the kind of leadership this country needs.’

There may be layers of failure contributing to this incident but the response from the White House is appalling. It’s not just that they have demonstrated the wrong kind of leadership. They haven’t demonstrated any leadership at all. And then there are the hints (I’m being generous) of ethical and moral failings permeating the entire affair. That is not forgivable.

Another small victory for the enemy:

A masked gunman assassinated a Yemeni security official who worked for the U.S. Embassy in a drive-by shooting Thursday near his home in the capital, officials said, adding the assault bore the hallmarks of al Qaeda’s Yemen branch.

…The officials noted it was similar to a series of other recent assaults by Al Qaeda’s Yemen branch, although they said it was too early to confirm the group’s involvement. Washington considers the Yemen-based Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP, the most dangerous offshoot of the terror network. It has also been increasingly targeting Yemeni intelligence, military and security officials in retaliation for a U.S.-backed government offensive in the south.

AQAP sponsored or not I find the uptick in small scale attacks concerning. Granted, these are not catastrophic events that impact national power but they are still human tragedies and still disruptive (sometimes incredibly so) to our mission overseas.

Of course, al Qaeda was famous for aiming incredibly high in its attack planning – and obviously hit that mark quite a few times. Recent events seem to indicate that the strategy of a thousand cuts is on its way to being more fully realized. But is that overarching strategy really being fully embraced or is the increasing downward slide in attack scope more indicative of the enemies reduced capabilities?

I think there’s a little bit of both possibilities at play here. I don’t think there is quite enough evidence yet to suggest that al Qaeda and its affiliates can carry off a sustained and coordinated international campaign of small attacks. One thousand small cuts can bring down a giant but only if they occur in relatively quick succession and with some degree of coordination. This event is probably best viewed in a local context rather than as part of a coordinated international campaign. However, that could change at some point.

For me the possibility of emerging coordination (even if the networks themselves remain quite loose) and increasing frequency of attack raise other questions. How could we conduct our overseas diplomatic and intelligence missions in the face of that disruption? Perhaps it is even better to ask if we are too reliant on those facilities to start with. Could we operate differently and minimize the risk? Have we done enough to anticipate our enemy and negate their impact? After Benghazi I am not so confident that we know the answers to those questions. In fact, I am not even sure that we are asking them.

With the State Department backtracking on its story, disturbing and shameful background details on the security situation continuing to emerge, and hearings on “The Security Failures of Benghazi” being held today there is going to be a flood of commentary and information on Twitter.

Fortunately, I’ve created a monitor for these issues on Covert Contact. These monitors usually require a small subscription fee but this is a critical issue and I want to help as many people follow it as possible. Just click on the start button below to launch the monitor.

Picture of Malala Yousafzai being evacuated to CMH, #Peshawar – #ISPR twitter.com/PakistanArmy_/…

— Pakistan Army (@PakistanArmy_) October 9, 2012

I am #Pakistan. I am #Malala. I condemn the dastardly attack. I denounce the sick mindset that conceived & executed it. blogsofwar.com/wp-content/upl…

— Adil Najam (@AdilNajam) October 9, 2012

Shocking and horrible news about Malala Yousafzai..shame, shame.. now attacking girls/women?.where is the govt? In hell, someday..we hope!!

— Fauzia Kasuri (@FauziaKasuri) October 9, 2012

My heart aches for this young child! God damn those so called Jihadi fools! I wish you a speedy recovery Malala Yousafzai #PrayerforMalala

— Maddy Khan (@KingMadKhan) October 9, 2012

We the sons and daughters of #Pakistan are impotent mute dumb and shameless if we do not fight against obstinacy #MalalaYousafzai

— Aly(@alynaseer) October 9, 2012

Malala Yousafzai keeps reminding me of Anne Frank. And reinforce my faith in the power of words. May her soul rest in peace.

— Soumyasree(@_soumyasree_) October 9, 2012

Cowards end up hurting a brave child #Malala that they r shit scared of.. Enough of Terrorists and its sympathizers…

— meena gabeena (@gabeeno) October 9, 2012

Frankly… Imran Khan should tell us if he thinks Taliban can be negotiated with when they target people like Malala Yousafzai?

— Yasser Latif Hamdani (@theRealYLH) October 9, 2012

Malala’s survival and comeback will be the greatest victory against the barbarians. Indeed, the pen is mightier than the sword.

— Nadeem F. Paracha (@NadeemfParacha) October 9, 2012

Attack on #Malalayousafzai establishes one fact beyond any doubt -Taliban has nothing to do with Pashtun Culture

— Ijaz Khan (@ijazkhan) October 9, 2012

Malala Yousafzai, You are a hero and a legend. We are all with you and praying for your quick recovery. You are… fb.me/1CIw8ax0J

— Syed Muzamil Hasan Z (@muzamilhasan) October 9, 2012

Fact of the day: Today we all are #Malala Yousufzai

— Farrukh Khan Pitafi (@FarrukhKPitafi) October 9, 2012

What a country where Malala Yousufzai is targetted? All good wishes for the young daughters of Pakistan.

— Wasif Syed (@capsyed) October 9, 2012

SICK. #Taliban vow to target #Malala again if she survives. Where are govt/security forces??? Stem these threats NOW tribune.com.pk/story/449070/n…

— Huma Yusuf (@humayusuf) October 9, 2012

Wish her fast recovery |”As news made rounds,100s of ppl flocked hospital, willing 2 donate blood to Malala Yousufzai” tribune.com.pk/story/449070/n…

— Mujib Mashal (@MujMash) October 9, 2012

Shocking that someone like Malala Yousufzai who had been threatened by Talibs didn’t have better security.

— Rezaul Hasan Laskar (@Rezhasan) October 9, 2012

I condemn the attack onMalala Yousafzai in swat- you can’t silence us all cowards! #Pakistan

— Sharmeen Obaid (@sharmeenochinoy) October 9, 2012

Flagrant attack on Malala Yousafzai in Swat is disgusting. It is our foremost responsibility to protect our children

— Hassan Nisar (@HassanNisarPK) October 9, 2012

Malala Yousafzai:You are daughter of nation,all nation is with you. PTI will protest on this issue. ISF and Women wing pls act.

— Ejaz Chaudhary (@EjazChaudhary) October 9, 2012

Sadly, this perfectly epitomizes the battle for Pakistan’s soul:

A 14-year-old girl, who was awarded Pakistan’s first National Peace Prize for her online diary reporting on the Taliban’s ban on education, was shot and wounded on her way home from school Tuesday.

Malala Yousufzai, a frequent target of death threats, was wounded when gunmen opened fire on her school van in Swat valley, police said.

“She has received two bullets wounds, one in her neck,” said senior police official Gul Afzal Afridi. “She is in critical condition and the doctors are doing their best to save her.”

Malala, a resident of Swat Valley in northwest Pakistan — one of the most conservative regions of the country — wrote about her frustration with the Taliban’s restrictions on female education in her town.

Using the Internet, she reached out to the outside world, taking a stand by writing about her daily battle with extremist militants who used fear and intimidation to force girls to stay at home.

The Taliban have proudly owned up to being terrified of a 14 year old girl and attacking her in response:

Speaking to Dawn.com’s correspondent Zahir Shah Sherazi from an undisclosed destination, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) spokesman Ahsanullah Ahsan said that the TTP accepts responsibility of the attack as Malala was propagating anti-Taliban and ‘secular’ thoughts among the youth of the area.

Pakistan desperately needs a million Malala’s right now but that seems increasingly unlikely. And that is precisely what the Taliban was trying to prevent. Will this be the spark that triggers other women and girls to bravely speak out or will the intimidation work? I think I know the answer, and I do not blame them for it, but it does not bode well for Pakistan.

Take a moment to read Malala’s diary if you haven’t already. She willing risked her life to share it with you. When you have finished please share it with someone else.

More than three weeks after the death of U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens, the U.S. military on Thursday airlifted a team of investigators from the Federal Bureau of Investigation for a short mission to the destroyed U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi.

“At the request of the FBI, the department provided logistic and security support to the investigation team in order to conduct work onsite in Benghazi. DOD personnel completed that support earlier today and have departed Benghazi, along with the investigation team,” said Pentagon press secretary George Little, in a press briefing.

Is there any real benefit in putting a team in there this late in the game? They might be able to secure some documents or property but I am sure that the site has been picked over by this point. And after three weeks the crime scene has been compromised into irrelevance. No, this is a purely political decision. Having reporters shuffling around the “unreachable” site and posting sensitive documents online seems to have forced someone’s hand. Officials deny this, of course, but it is really difficult to see it any other way.

Update:
They came, they saw, they left right away.

Alexander Bortnikov, head of Russia’s FSB, issued the warning:

While speaking at a security conference in Moscow, Bortnikov highlighted arson’s ability to inflict widespread damage and elude law enforcement with minimal effort or cost:

“Forest fires in European Union countries should be considered one of the new trends in Al Qaeda’s ‘thousand cuts’ strategy. This approach allows them to inflict significant damage on the economy and morale without any serious preparation, technical equipment, or financial outlay”

The Moscow Times reports that Greenpeace, the World Wildlife Federation, and other environmental groups reacted to the FSB’s comments with skepticism, noting the lack of evidence to substantiate Bortnikov’s claims.

We’ve seen these warnings before (Remember Greece 2007?). Of course, al Qaeda promoted the strategy in issue #9 of Inspire Magazine too. So it’s like this isn’t a possibility. And I will admit that my initial reaction to this possibility (years ago) was that it might become a larger factor and be more effective than it has. It is an attractive terror strategy on several levels. It is cheap, easy, relatively risk free, and repeatable. Fortunately, it is also a bit of a dud in the terror creation department.

Wildfires can be expensive and they do take lives but a review of the statistics shows that they’re actually not very deadly in the big scheme of things (the largest risk is to firefighters) and they tend to impact sparsely populated areas – you know, where the trees are. I’m not saying that they’re not dangerous but they just don’t generate the sort of emotional impact, the terror, associated with direct acts of violence. I’m not even sure that this is a winning strategy from an economic perspective because, again, it is more likely to impact sparsely populated non-commercial areas.

So is the threat real? Sure. Unfortunately counterterrorism forces have thousands of legitimate potential threats to contend with. There are countless ways to kill people and disrupt commerce and arson is just one of them. It is easy accomplish but it is also largely ineffective and that is why it is unlikely to ever become a top tier threat.

That said, watching for the evolution and alignment of these small, like-minded groups is important, but it is a problem that we, as a nation, understand. It was from relatively small-scale attacks against “soft” diplomatic targets in Iraq that Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi first made a name for himself and his loosely knitted network in jihadist circles. After joining al Qaeda in 2004, Zarqawi leveraged funding, personnel and the brand to galvanize support for his operations. Still, Zarqawi remained focused on engaging U.S. forces inside of Iraq, which at times did not align with al Qaeda’s central leadership strategy of executing attacks on US soil. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has been rumored to have a possible role in the Benghazi attack. Even if AQIM played a role in the attack, the intelligence collection challenge remains in targeting small, loosely affiliated groups that act as the executioners with localized agendas.

This is great stuff and something I’ve been thinking about a lot lately. In some respects this recent explosion of violence seems to show al Qaeda increasingly taking on architectural characteristics of other loose network threats such as Anonymous and the Occupy Movement. It’s not like they are left with many options since organizational structure essentially equals death.

The hacker group Anonymous illustrates the threat posed by these networks perfectly. The upside is that, so far at least, these networks are generally less threatening than the model embodied by al Qaeda at its strongest. The real threat is in the unpredictability of their reach and action. With the benefit instant global communication they can recruit, coalesce, and strike with relatively little effort or central planning. It is also difficult to measure the number of sympathizers or people who self-identify as members. And of those, how many of them will resort to violence or some sort of disruptive action? Their distributed nature also allows them to stage attacks from nearly any spot on the globe or to strike many places at once. So, they aren’t an existential threat but they are quite difficult to pin down and they are capable of catching you off-guard quite quickly.

Despite the advantages inherent in loose networks there are limiting factors that work against them. The weakness inherent in all of these groups is their reliance on technical means for communication and coordination. Anonymous needs its IRC, Jihadists have their forums, and Occupy has its vast array of websites, twitter channels, and video feeds. All of these are deep wells of easily exploitable intelligence that will be leveraged by law enforcement and intelligence organizations to keep these groups in check. In the end the most unpredictable and potentially dangerous threat lies in those small cells of competent true-believers who are skilled enough to evade detection.

The opening ceremony occurs on Friday, July 27th but preparations to secure the games have been underway for years. This monitor aggregates media reports and public discussion (which is quite robust this time around) about the measures taken to secure the games and the city.

I’ve made the English translation PDFs and brief summary analysis of the documents available below. Full credit for the summaries goes to the report authors Don Rassler, Gabriel Koehler-Derrick, Liam Collins, Muhammad al-Obaidi, Nelly Lahoud – and of course the fine people who, at great risk, originally collected the intelligence.

SOCOM-2012-0000003
This letter was authored by Usama bin Ladin and addressed to Shaykh Mahmud (`Atiyya Abdul Rahman) on 27 August 2010. Mahmud is specifically directed to tell “Basir,” who is Nasir al-Wuhayshi (Abu Basir), the leader of al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula, to remain in his role (presumably in response to a request from Abu Basir that Anwar al-`Awlaqi take his position), and for him to send “us a detailed and lengthy” version of al-`Awlaqi’s resume. `Atiyya is also told to ask Basir and Anwar al-`Awlaqi for their “vision in detail about the situation” in Yemen. References are also made in the letter to the 2010 floods in Pakistan, a letter from Bin Ladin’s son Khalid to `Abd al-Latif, al-Qa`ida’s media plan for the 9/11 anniversary, and the need for the “brothers coming from Iran” to be placed in safe locations.

SOCOM-2012-0000004
This document is a letter authored by the American al-Qa`ida spokesman Adam Gadahn to an unknown recipient and was written in late January 2011. In the first part of the document Gadahn provides strategic advice regarding al-Qa`ida’s media plans for the tenth anniversary of 9/11. The letter is in essence a response to many of the requests/queries that Bin Ladin makes in his letter to `Atiyya dated October 2010 (SOCOM-2012-0000015), particularly those concerning a media strategy for the ten-year anniversary of 9/11. In other parts of the document Gadahn incisively criticizes the tactics and targeting calculus of the Islamic State of Iraq (AQI/ISI) and the Pakistani Taliban (TTP); he strongly advocates for al-Qa`ida to publicly dissociate itself from both groups. The document concludes with a draft statement, which provides a candid assessment of these issues.

SOCOM-2012-0000005
This document is a letter dated 7 August 2010 from “Zamarai” (Usama bin Ladin) to Mukhtar Abu al-Zubayr, the leader of the Somali militant group Harakat al-Shabab al-Mujahidin, which merged with al-Qa`ida after Bin Ladin’s death. The document is a response to a letter Bin Ladin received from al-Zubayr in which he requested formal unity with al-Qa`ida and either consulted Bin Ladin on the question of declaring an Islamic state in Somalia or informed him that he was about to declare one. In Bin Ladin’s response, he politely declines al-Shabab’s request for formal unity with al-Qa`ida.

SOCOM-2012-0000006
This document is a letter believed to have been composed in December 2010 and its content relates to SOCOM-2012-0000005. The letter is addressed to Azmarai, perhaps a typo or misspelling of the nickname Zamarai (a nickname or kunya for Bin Ladin). While the identity of the author is unclear, the familiar tone and implicit critique of Bin Ladin’s policy vis-a-vis al-Shabab suggest that this is from a high ranking personality, possibly Ayman al-Zawahiri. Referring to “our friend’s letter” and the perspective of the “brothers…[who might have been] too concerned about inflating the size and growth of al-Qa`ida,” the author of the document urges the receiver to “reconsider your opinion not to declare the accession [i.e. formal merger] of the brothers of Somalia…” This is clearly a reference to al-Qa`ida’s potential merger with al-Shabab and suggests that al-Qa`ida’s relationship with the “affiliates” is a subject of internal debate. If indeed the author of the letter is Ayman al-Zawahiri this could be an indication of a major fissure over a key strategic question at the pinnacle of the organization (for different interpretations of this letter, see Appendix of “Letters from Abbottabad”).

SOCOM-2012-0000007
This letter is authored by Mahmud al-Hasan (`Atiyya) and Abu Yahya al-Libi and addressed to the amir of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Hakimullah Mahsud. It is dated 3 December 2010 and is sharply critical of the ideology and tactics of the TTP. The letter makes it clear that al-Qa`ida’s senior leaders had serious concerns about the TTP’s trajectory inside Pakistan, and the impact the group’s misguided operations might have on al-Qa`ida and other militant groups in the region. The authors identify several errors committed by the group, specifically Hakimullah Mahsud’s arrogation of privileges and positions beyond what was appropriate as the TTP’s amir; the TTP’s use of indiscriminate violence and killing of Muslim civilians; and the group’s use of kidnapping. `Atiyya and al-Libi also take issue with Mahsud labeling al-Qa`ida members as “guests” and the attempts made by other groups (presumably the TTP) to siphon off al-Qa`ida members. The authors threaten that if actions are not taken to correct these mistakes, “we shall be forced to take public and firm legal steps from our side.”

SOCOM-2012-0000008
This letter was originally an exchange between Jaysh al-Islam and `Atiyya that was forwarded first to a certain `Abd al-Hamid (and presumably to Bin Ladin later). The gist of Jaysh al-Islam’s letter makes it known that the group is in need of financial assistance “to support jihad,” and that the group is seeking `Atiyya’s legal advice on three matters: 1) the permissibility of accepting financial assistance from other militant Palestinian groups (e.g., Fatah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad); 2) the permissibility of investing funds in the stock market in support of jihad; and 3) the permissibility of striking or killing drug traffickers in order to use their money, and even drugs, to lure their enemies who could in turn be used by Jaysh al-Islam as double-agents. `Atiyya’s response, written sometime between 24 October 2006 and 22 November 2006, is cordial but distant, responding to the questions but refraining from giving any strategic advice.

SOCOM-2012-0000009
This document is part of a longer letter which was not released to the CTC. It is not clear who authored the letter or to whom it was addressed. It discusses the potential need to change the name of “Qa`idat al-Jihad.” The author is of the view that the abridging of the name “al-Qa`ida” has “lessened Muslims’ feelings that we belong to them.” The author is further concerned that since the name “al-Qa`ida” lacks religious connotations, it has allowed the United States to launch a war on “al-Qa`ida” without offending Muslims. The author proposed a list of new names that capture Islamic theological themes: Ta’ifat al-tawhid wa-al-jihad (Monotheism and Jihad Group), Jama`at wahdat al-Muslimin (Muslim Unity Group), Hizb tawhid al-Umma al-Islamiyya (Islamic Nation Unification Party) and Jama`at tahrir al-aqsa (Al-Aqsa Liberation Group).

SOCOM-2012-0000010
This letter is authored by “Abu `Abdallah” (Usama bin Ladin), addressed to “Shaykh Mahmud” (`Atiyya) and dated 26 April 2011 – a week before bin Ladin’s death. In it, Bin Ladin outlines his response to the “Arab Spring,” proposing two different strategies. The first strategy pertains to the Arab World and entails “inciting people who have not yet revolted and exhort[ing] them to rebel against the rulers (khuruj ‘ala al-hukkam)”; the second strategy concerns Afghanistan and it entails continuing to evoke the obligation of jihad there. The letter also makes reference to a wide variety of topics including: the scarcity of communications from Iraq, “the brothers coming from Iran,” and hostages held by “our brothers in the Islamic Maghreb” and in Somalia. The document also briefly discusses Bin Ladin’s sons, his courier, Shaykh Abu Muhammad (Ayman al-Zawahiri), and other individuals of interest.

SOCOM-2012-0000011
This letter, dated 28 March 2007, is addressed to a legal scholar by the name of Hafiz Sultan, and it is authored by someone who is of Egyptian origin. The author makes it explicit that he was alarmed by al-Qa`ida in Iraq’s conduct and he urges Sultan to write to that group’s leaders to correct their ways. The author also asks for legal guidance on the use of chlorine gas, which he appears not to support. A reference is also made to “the brothers in Lebanon” and the need to arrange “to have one of their representatives visit us in the near future.” A message from the “brothers in Algeria” is also included.

SOCOM-2012-0000012
This letter dated 11 June 2009 was written by `Atiyya to the “honorable shaykh.” It is possible that it was addressed to Usama bin Ladin, but it may have been addressed to another senior leader. The majority of the letter provides details on the release of detained jihadi “brothers” and their families from Iran and an indication that more are expected to be released, including Bin Ladin’s family. It seems that their release was partially in response to covert operations by al-Qa`ida against Iran and its interests.

SOCOM-2012-0000013
This is a draft that formed the basis of a publicly available document, part four in a series of statements that Ayman al-Zawahiri released in response to the “Arab Spring.” Through the document one can observe al-Qa`ida’s editing process (reflected in the editor’s comments highlighted in green and in a bold font). While it is not clear if Bin Ladin himself did the editing, whoever did so has solid grammatical foundations and prefers a more self-effacing writing style than al-Zawahiri. The edits were not included in al-Zawahiri’s final speech which was released in a video on 4 March 2011 on jihadi forums. Of the 12 proposed corrections only one appears in al-Zawahiri’s speech.

SOCOM-2012-0000014
This document consists of two letters addressed to “Abu `Abd-al-Rahman,” almost certainly `Atiyya `Abd al-Rahman. It was sent by an operative who knows `Atiyya and is a religious student with ties to the senior shaykhs and clerics in Saudi Arabia. While the letters are not dated, their contents suggest they were composed soon after January 2007; they read very much like an intelligence assessment, designed to provide `Atiyya with some perspective on how al-Qa`ida generally, and the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) more specifically, are perceived amongst Saudi scholars of varying degrees of prominence. The author provides `Atiyya with brief summaries of private meetings the author had with certain scholars, with the clear intent of evaluating the level of support that al-Qa`ida enjoys from some relatively prominent members of the Saudi religious establishment.

SOCOM-2012-0000015
This document is a letter dated 21 October 2010 from Bin Ladin to “Shaykh Mahmud” (`Atiyya). The letter is primarily focused on issues in the Afghanistan/Pakistan region. In the letter Bin Ladin specifically comments on: the security situation in Waziristan and the need to relocate al-Qa`ida members from the region; counter surveillance issues associated with the movement of his son Hamza within Pakistan; the appointment of `Atiyya’s three deputies; various al-Sahab videos and the media plan for the tenth anniversary of 9/11; the release of an Afghan prisoner held by al-Qa`ida; and the trial of Faisal Shahzad. Ayman al-Zawahiri, Abu Yahya al-Libi, Saif al-`Adl, and Adam Gadahn are also mentioned in the document.

SOCOM-2012-0000016
This document is a letter addressed to “Abu Basir” (Nasir al-Wuhayshi, leader of al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula – AQAP) from an unidentified author, most likely Usama bin Ladin and/or `Atiyya. The letter is in part a response to specific requests for guidance from AQAP’s leadership. The author specifically advises AQAP to focus on targeting the United States, not the Yemeni government or security forces. The author also discusses media strategy and the importance of AQAP’s relations with Yemen’s tribes.

SOCOM-2012-0000017
This document is a series of paragraphs, some of which match the content found in SOCOM-2012-0000016. This document was likely written by the author of that document. This letter discusses strategy, the need for al-Qa`ida to remain focused on targeting the United States (or even against U.S. targets in South Africa where other “brothers” are not active), the importance of tribal relations in a variety of different countries, and media activity.

SOCOM-2012-0000018
This document is a letter addressed to Usama bin Ladin from “a loving brother whom you know and who knows you” and dated 14 September 2006. The author is critical of Bin Ladin for focusing al- Qa`ida’s operations on “Islamic countries in general and the Arabian Peninsula in particular.” He enumerates the numerous negative consequences of engaging in jihad inside Saudi Arabia, and informs Bin Ladin that people are now repulsed by the technical term “jihad” and even forbidden to use it in lectures. The author strongly advised Bin Ladin to change his policies.

SOCOM-2012-0000019
This document is a long letter authored by Usama bin Ladin after the death of Sheikh Sa‘id (Mustafa Abu’l-Yazid) in late May 2010 and it is addressed to “Shaykh Mahmud” (`Atiyya) who he designates as Sa‘id’s successor. Bin Ladin’s letter is concerned with the mistakes committed by regional jihadi groups, which have resulted in the unnecessary deaths of thousands of Muslim civilians. Bin Ladin indicates that he would like to start a “new phase” so that the jihadis could regain the trust of Muslims. He directs `Atiyya to prepare a memorandum to centralize, in the hands of AQC, the media campaign and operations of regional jihadi groups. Considerable space is devoted to a discussion about Yemen, external operations and Bin Ladin’s plans for his son Hamza. This document includes an additional letter that Bin Ladin forwards to `Atiyya authored by Shaykh Yunis, presumably Yunis al-Mauritani, consisting of a new operational plan that al- Qa`ida should consider adopting.