Blogs of War

I will be live tweeting the debate at 8pm EST tonight. You can also stream all of the debate tweets with the Blogs of War GOP Debate monitor at http://gopdebate.blogsofwar.com.

Romney, Gingrich, and Huntsman should have informed positions tonight. Bachmann, Ron Paul, and Santorum will continue to be irrelevant. Rick Perry is essentially a wild card. I don’t expect him to do particularly well but if he can find his groove he could still score points. Perry will do best if he sets his sights on Newt. Newt is the political equivalent of a Gaddafi motorcade in the desert – a big fat juicy target.

Recommended on Twitter: @newtgingrich – Newt Gingrich’s official twitter account.

Follow all the developments in the 2012 presidential race with the Blogs of War 2012 Monitor at http://2012.blogsofwar.com.

http://newt.blogsofwar.com is streaming all the chatter about about Newt’s campaign and there is a lot of it – at least this week.

It’s time for yet another debate that Rick Perry can’t afford to flub. Foreign policy issues and pre-season debates are a disaterous mix but half of you will be watching in anticipation of just that anyway. Between Cain, Perry, and Ron Paul you’re probably in for a treat. Don’t be surprised if Perry comes into this one wound up and closes the show by bellowing “This is Sparta!” and running wildly off the set in the direction of Iran. They’re going to come up an awful lot tonight.

I suspect Romney could win this one just by keeping quiet and looking at most everyone else like their half-crazy because, well, they are.

You can follow the debate chatter live on the Blogs of War 2012 Monitor.

I’ve pulled a few choice bits together so you can get a feel for the allegations, the language used, and the evidence used to prepare the report. It is quite pointed in its criticism but it is not quite the game-changer or prelude to war that many make it out to be.

Regarding possible military dimensions:

43. The information indicates that Iran has carried out the following activities that are relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device:

• Efforts, some successful, to procure nuclear related and dual use equipment and materials by military related individuals and entities (Annex, Sections C.1 and C.2);
• Efforts to develop undeclared pathways for the production of nuclear material (Annex, Section C.3);
• The acquisition of nuclear weapons development information and documentation from a clandestine nuclear supply network (Annex, Section C.4); and
• Work on the development of an indigenous design of a nuclear weapon including the testing of components (Annex, Sections C.5–C.12).

44. While some of the activities identified in the Annex have civilian as well as military applications, others are specific to nuclear weapons.

45. The information indicates that prior to the end of 2003 the above activities took place under a structured programme. There are also indications that some activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device continued after 2003, and that some may still be ongoing.

Page 8 Section G.43

On the evidence:

“As indicated in paragraph 6 above, among the information available to the Agency is the alleged studies documentation: a large volume of documentation (including correspondence, reports, view graphs from presentations, videos and engineering drawings), amounting to over a thousand pages. The information reflected in that documentation is of a technically complex and interconnected nature, showing research, development and testing activities over time. It also contains working level correspondence consistent with the day to day implementation of a formal programme.”

Annex Page 4 Section B.12

On Iran’s lack of cooperation:

“Iran has acknowledged certain information reflected in the alleged studies documentation. However, many of the answers given by Iran to questions posed by the Agency in connection with efforts to resolve the Agency’s concerns have been imprecise and/or incomplete, and the information has been slow in coming and sometimes contradictory. This, combined with events such as the dismantling of the Lavisan-Shian site in late 2003/early 2004 (see paragraph 19 below), and a pattern of late or after the fact acknowledgement of the existence of previously undeclared parts of Iran’s nuclear programme, have tended to increase the Agency’s concerns, rather than dispel them.”

Annex Page 4 Section B.15

On missile integration

“The alleged studies documentation contains extensive information regarding work which is alleged to have been conducted by Iran during the period 2002 to 2003 under what was known as Project 111. From that information, the project appears to have consisted of a structured and comprehensive programme of engineering studies to examine how to integrate a new spherical payload into the existing
payload chamber which would be mounted in the re-entry vehicle of the Shahab 3 missile.”

Annex Page 11 Section C.11.59

From the summary:

“The Agency has serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme. After assessing carefully and critically the extensive information available to it, the Agency finds the information to be, overall, credible. The information indicates that Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device. The information also indicates that prior to the end of 2003, these activities took place under a structured programme, and that some activities may still be
ongoing.”

Page 10 Section K.53

You can download the full IAEA report from ISIS.

Recommended on Twitter: @IAEAorg. Official accout of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

In isolation this would have been embarrassing but wouldn’t have left a mark. But when you’ve stumbled in every debate, and pundits are repeatedly declaring that you have just one more chance to get it right, this is pretty damaging. I am sure that this will be the defining moment of Perry’s campaign, the moment everything ended, but things have been unraveling from the start. This has been Romney’s race for some time and looks to stay that way.

Most posts published on the blog and the Kindle edition recommend at least one relevant Twitter account. Here are this week’s mentions:

@MajorEChirchir – Major E. Chirchir is a Kenyan military spokesman.

@KareemLailah – Writer, Musician, Human rights activist and Freedom fighter. Editor-in-Chief of Syrian revolution newspaper.

@ArmsControlWonk – Jeffrey Lewis is the Director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.

@FBIPressOffice. Official FBI Press Office feed.

@ShababLibya – The Libyan Youth Movement is a group of Libyan Youth, both in and out of Libya, inspired by Egypt and Tunisia.

@IAEAorg – The latest news and updates from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

@ArmyTimes – Your online source for everything Army: Army news, benefits, photos, news from Iraq, military community.

@azelin – Aaron Y. Zelin is a research associate in the Department of Politics at Brandeis University. He is interested in Islamic intellectual history, Tunisia, and Yemen.

@Hamza_Africa – Hamza Mohamed is an independent Journalist currently with BBC. He specialises in Sub Saharan Africa.

@dianawueger – Diana Wueger writes about & analyzing small arms, foreign affairs, natsec.

@Sm0k34n0n – Anonymous account and original source of the threat against the cartels.

@opcw – Official twitter account of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

@allthingsct – Leah Farrall is an ex-counterterrorism analyst; returned academic type w/ background in IR.

@AnonOps – Frequent updates on Anonymous activities.

@billroggio – Editor of The Long War Journal & Senior Fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

@Africom – U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), is one of nine Unified Combatant Commands of the U.S. Department of Defense.

This isn’t an iPad app but it is designed to cleanly cram a lot of national security tweets into a smaller tablet-sized format. There are a total of nine streams available under the NatSec, CyberWar, and Arab Spring tabs.

NatSec
Tracking US national security, the intelligence community, and terrorism discussions.

CyberWar
Tracking cyberwar chatter, hacker groups such as Anonymous and LulzSec, and Infosec discussions.

Arab Spring
Tracking Arab Spring, and Arab Revolution discussions and several involved countries.

You can access version from the main menu of the full version of the crisis monitor or at http://ipad.blogsofwar.com

I’ve thrown together a presidential address monitor for tonight’s speech. There are live Twitter streams for Obama and reaction to his address. You can also find links to the White House and up to date unemployment data. I’m also testing out a new split screen view that will allow you to watch the speech while monitoring reaction on Twitter.

Now reports of a mass shooting on the island of Utoya near Oslo. I have modified the crisis monitor to track this and the events in Oslo. The new monitor can be found at http://blogsofwar.com/norway/ and I am continuing to update on Twitter.