MSNBC’s sources seem fairly certain that this test is going to go down soon – if not in the next few hours:

North Korea could carry out an underground test of a nuclear weapon as early as Tuesday night as the North’s reclusive leadership dramatically tries to up the stakes with the U.S. and the West, U.S. officials told NBC News.

U.S. officials say North Korea may already have an arsenal between 12 and a “few dozen” far more advanced weapons, many more than generally believed.

The officials couldn’t be specific on a date for the test, but they told NBC News they were “100 percent” certain there would be a nuclear test within the next two weeks or “at any time.”

I’ve updated the North Korea ThreatStream to monitor tweets about North Korea’s nuclear program and any potential test. You might want to keep an eye on it this evening.

Korea watchers are buzzing on Twitter after an unusual announcement from the North. Of course, North Korea churns out crazy threats on a daily basis but there seems to be more energy and specificity behind the recent activity – at least enough to cause concern. Here is the English translation, in its entirety, from KCNA:

Lee Myung Bak Group Warned of Quick Action by KPA Supreme Command Special Operation Action Group

Pyongyang, April 23 (KCNA) — The special operation action group of the Supreme Command of the Korean People’s Army issued the following notice Monday:

The indignation of the army and people of the DPRK at the group of rat-like Lee Myung Bak is running high.

Shouts “Destroy”, “Beat to death” and “Tear to death” are ringing out on this land.

But the Lee group of traitors is still doing mischiefs, not coming to its senses.

On April 20 they toured the “Institute for Unification Studies”, den of rats, in Suyu-dong, Kangbuk District, Seoul where they called for “orienting to system change in the north” if it does not give up its nuclear and missile ambitions, saying that “what is needed for the north now is not only bread but individual freedom and human rights”. They have gone so impudent as to assert that “co-op farms should be disorganized and agricultural reform be effected to help improve the livelihood of the citizens in the north”.

On April 19 they appeared in the puppet Scientific Institute for National Defense where they heaped praises on a few poor-looking missiles, saying they have precision and power enough to immediately strike any part of the DPRK, inviolable land. They had temerity of dare talking about “striking the supreme headquarters through office window”.

Puppet Defense Minister Kim Kwan Jin and other military warmongers danced to the tune.

The situation proves that the group of traitors has long lost its reasoning power.

In the meantime, paid conservative media which had long been reduced to a waiting maid of the group of traitors, worked with blood-shot eyes to build up public opinion in favor of the rats’ group.

Involved in the campaign were Dong-A Ilbo situated in the downtown Seoul as well as KBS, MBC, YTN and other media institutions.

The Lee group should have apologized for its high treasons tens of thousands of times and chosen death by itself.

This group is, however, challenging the north, grinding its teeth.

In view of the situation getting graver as the days go by, the KPA Supreme Command special operation action group issues the following notice upon authorization:

The special actions of our revolutionary armed forces will start soon to meet the reckless challenge of the group of traitors.

Those actions are an eruption of the public anger and resentment and a sacred war of all service personnel and people to protect the dignity of our supreme leadership.

Their targets are the Lee Myung Bak group of traitors, the arch criminals, and the group of rat-like elements including conservative media destroying the mainstay of the fair public opinion.

Once the above-said special actions kick off, they will reduce all the rat-like groups and the bases for provocations to ashes in three or four minutes, in much shorter time, by unprecedented peculiar means and methods of our own style.

Our revolutionary armed forces do not make an empty talk. -0-

Steve Herman’s sources are talking “cyber” so that may be an angle to watch:

Some sources I’m speaking with (jn & out of gov’t) speculate the threat could indicate plans for a big cyber attack on #ROK from #DPRK.

You can monitor developments with the North Korean ThreatStream. If something does happen Twitter will most likely light up with the news first.

What do I think will happen? The safe money is on not much happening at all – certainly nothing worthy of the hype.

This new ThreatStream looks at North Korea’s possible upcoming satellite launch from four angles:

1. The launch – any tweets related to a North Korean rocket launch.
2. The Japanese Reaction – They’ve threatened to shoot the rocket down if it flies over their territory.
3. The South Korean Reaction – South Korea might do the same.
4. Military Activity – Any military activity (by any party) related to North Korea.

According to reports the test will take place between the 12th and 16th of April. Stay tuned.

He apparently died from a massive heart attack on Saturday:

The news came as North Korea prepared for a hereditary succession. Kim Jong Il inherited power after his father, revered North Korean founder Kim Il Sung, died in 1994. In September 2010, Kim Jong Il unveiled his third son, the twenty-something Kim Jong Un, as his successor, putting him in high-ranking posts.

Kim Jong Il had been groomed for 20 years to lead the communist nation founded by his guerrilla fighter-turned-politician father and built according to the principle of “juche,” or self-reliance.

Even with a successor, there had been some fear among North Korean observers of a behind-the-scenes power struggle or nuclear instability upon the elder Kim’s death.

There’s a fair amount of apprehension about the transition, South Korea is on alert at the moment, but this will probably pass uneventfully. Monitor the reaction on Twitter with the Blogs of War Koreas Monitor at http://korea.blogsofwar.com. It has live streams monitoring comments about both North and South Korea.

Like most DPRK observers I love North Korean travelogues. I know that the tightly controlled DPRK tourism machine presents a highly sanitized, if not outright fictional, view of daily life for North Koreans but even propaganda can be revealing. The truth always slips through. I am also well aware of the smuggled videos that reveal the extreme poverty, oppression, and executions that occur there but those are for another post and another day.

Most of the blogs, photos, and videos assembled below are the products of ordinary tourists (although the first blog contains the impressions, and photographs, of a Reuters photographer). Some of the observations are quite sharp, most of them mundane, but if you take in enough of them something approaching reality emerges.

Blogs
Inside North Korea: No One Said Anything (2010)
“The atmosphere was solemn. On the street, men wore suits and women wore the traditional Korean dress called a hanbok. While the convoy was delayed at a security checkpoint, I joined other colleagues who started taking pictures of passers-by. I couldn’t resist and snapped some shots of North Korean soldiers going in and out of a gate nearby. No one said anything.”

A Secretive Trip to a Secretive Country (2010)
“Our rooms were all on the 25th floor. I entered the room excitedly and opened the window, expecting a wonderful view of Pyongyang. Instead, I was greeted by darkness. (Not surprising, given North Korea’s chronic shortage of fuel…) Out of the darkness, I could see a couple of high-rise apartment blocks across the river. Further afield, I could see the Juche Tower (probably the brightest-lit monument in the city). Realising that I couldn’t see much, I closed the window and decided to take a walk downstairs around the hotel lobby. While strolling, I saw a bookshop selling numerous North Korean books and publications. I flipped through some of the publications and I quickly became engrossed… The printing technology, design and layout of these publications looked very “1980s”.”

A Trip to North Korea (2006)
Koreans are not shy when it comes to basic needs, the guide forbid to take pictures of men taking a piss on the middle of the road, but there was no problem when it happened in the capital next to to a monument.

Fraser Lewry (2005)
“We learn how 82 American crew were held hostage for close to a year, only being released when the US published a full letter of apology. That the US retracted the apology the moment the sailors were freed is not mentioned. We roam the ship, from the communications room where various radio and encryption machines are stamped with plates that say things like ‘Top Secret Prohibited’, to the rear of the boat where a machine gun is primed to spray bullets across the bows of any ships from the US war maniacs or their southern puppet army. Etc.”

My Holiday in a Secret State (2005)
“At the statue, a few of us bought flowers and laid them at the front of the statue, before walking back and paying our respects by bowing. This was the first occasion I realised that some people might not be suited to a trip to DPRK. You have to go through the bowing to Kim Il Sung, and just accept it, even if you don’t approve of the leadership of the country. It is all about showing respect and politeness for a foreign country in which you are a rare guest. It’s a similar deal with the stories that you are told. Sometimes they seem far fetched, the guides know they sound far fetched, you know they do, and the guides know that you know. But the key is just to play along with it, take it in with interest and use your head a little.”

Don Parish (2005)
“People work from 9am to 6pm six days a week, every day except Sunday. They get a two hour lunch hour. Apartments and medical care are “free”. (Of course, to be exact no government service is ever free; someone had to pay for it. So wage levels are lower in communist countries so the government has the money to provide “free” apartments and medical care.) In North Korea, the waiting list to get an apartment is 3 years.”

Welcome to North Korea. Rule No. 1: Obey All Rules
While in the country, I desperately tried to talk to some actual North Koreans. But all outsiders travel in a virtual bubble, as a way to just about eliminate contact between North Koreans and outsiders. Except for the hotel’s doormen, all the staff we encountered were recruited from ethnic Korean communities in China – and they are rotated back to China every three months.

Journey into Kimland (2002)
“He handed the customs agent our forms and then motioned for us to put our bags through what appeared to be one of the oldest x-ray machines currently at work on our planet. I swear the thing must have helped in the original fight against polio. Anyway, when some of us complained about possible film damage the clerk motioned us over to another, much newer, machine. The bags went through, they looked over us, the bags and our forms and that was it. The world’s most tightly sealed country and we get through customs and immigration in less than 30 minutes. I’d half expected cavity searches, book burnings and perhaps a cattle prod. Instead it took less time than it usually takes just to walk up to the immigration line in most other international airports. There went reality again, screwing up my preconceptions.”

Wandering Camera
“There was an interesting moment when Alexey had trouble falling asleep and went out of the hotel at 6 in the morning to some random neighborhood. No one stopped him.He walked for about three kilometers, and was finally stopped by a policeman, who asked him for identification (in Korean, naturally). Since, first of all he didn’t have identification, and second he knew but a few words in Korean, they could not reach an understanding. A crowd gathered around them quickly (they don’t meet foreigners in residential quarters very often :) and finally there was someone, who knew the word “Russian”. That was what he asked Alexey, and Alexey said “yes”. After that the feelings got warmer, the policeman took down his name, and let him go. There were no consequences.”

Andrew Holloway (1988)
We climbed up to a pretty wooden pavilion, overlooking the city, and sat among the local people gossiping in the balmy night air, attracting I dare say a little envy at our cans of Japanese beer. On our way up we passed the city’s principal statue of the great leader. The bronze statue was illuminated by floodlights. A number of young devotees were gathered around the statue and studying the thoughts of the prophet by the beam of the floodlights in the presence of his brazen image. This is indubitably extremely silly, but when you are actually there it is also rather touching. I found it so anyway. “Do people in your country stand under statues of Margaret Thatcher and study her works?” asked Chang Yong ingenuously.

Photos
Lars Beck
North Korea Flickr Pool (9,700 Photos)
Kok Leng Yeo (109 Photos)
Escape From North Korea (NatGeo)
Unseen North Korea (BBC Gallery)
Rare Pictures from Inside North Korea (TIME Gallery)

Video
Arirang Mass Games
DPRK Tour Video (Produced by DPRK Tour Videographer)
Daily Life Inside North Korea
North Korean Welcome Song
Village Shop in North Korea
14 Days Inside North Korea
Seven Days in North Korea
A Sunday Drive in Pyongyang
Korital, First Pizzeria in the DPRK

Travel Guides
Lonely Planet
Wikitravel
Virtual Tourist

Photo by Kok Leng Yeo

A South Korean naval vessel with more than 100 aboard was sinking on Friday in waters near North Korea and Seoul was investigating whether it was hit in a torpedo attack by the North, South Korean media said.

More from Yonhap:

The 1,500-ton ship sank between 9:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m. near the island, but the cause of the accident was unknown, the officials said. A rescue operation was underway, they added.

There were no immediate reports of casualties, they said, adding there was an unspecified explosion in the rear of the ship.

The South Korean government has convened an emergency meeting of security-related ministers, according to the officials.

Updates:

South Korea isn’t takingng any chances as they move into the area:

The South Korean navy has reportedly fired shots at unidentified ships in the direction of North Korea as it investigates whether a sinking vessel in its fleet was struck by a torpedo Friday.

North Korea and the United States have agreed to resume the long-stalled six-party talks on Pyongyang’s nuclear issue “as soon as possible,” it was announced here on Wednesday.

The breakthrough came during talks brokered by China. Top negotiators of the three countries held several rounds of bilateral and trilateral talks in Beijing from Tuesday to Wednesday, exchanging views “frankly and in an in-depth way”, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said.

North Korea and the United States agreed to resume the six-party talks on the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue as soon as possible, the ministry said without giving a firm date.

Kim Yong Nam, president of the Presidium of the DPRK Supreme People’s Assembly, sent a message of greetings to Bashar Al-Assad, president of Syria, Wednesday on the occasion of the 36th anniversary of the corrective movement in Syria. The message said that the Korean people are pleased with the fact that the friendly Syrian government and people have successfully carried forward the cause of Hafez Al-Assad, the leader of advance. It sincerely wished the president and people of Syria greater success in their efforts to smash the outside pressure and challenge and protect the sovereignty and security of the country and regional peace and achieve fresh progress and prosperity.

“This was confirmed this morning in conversations I had with leaders of China, and South Korea, Russia, and Japan. We reaffirmed our commitment to a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, and all of us agreed that the proclaimed actions taken by North Korea are unacceptable and deserve an immediate response by the United Nations Security Council.

“The North Korean regime remains one of the world’s leading proliferator of missile technology, including transfers to Iran and Syria. The transfer of nuclear weapons or material by North Korea to states or non-state entities would be considered a grave threat to the United States, and we would hold North Korea fully accountable of the consequences of such action.

“The United States remains committed to diplomacy, and we will continue to protect ourselves and our interests. I reaffirmed to our allies in the region, including South Korea and Japan, that the United States will meet the full range of our deterrent and security commitments.

“Threats will not lead to a brighter future for the North Korean people, nor weaken the resolve of the United States and our allies to achieve the de-nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Today’s claim by North Korea serves only to raise tensions, while depriving the North Korean people of the increased prosperity and better relations with the world offered by the implementation of the joint statement of the six-party talks. The oppressed and impoverished people of North Korea deserve that brighter future.”

North Korea on Monday claimed it has performed a successful nuclear test, according to that country’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

South Korean government officials also said North Korea performed its first nuclear test, the South’s Yonhap news agency reported.

The apparent nuclear test was conducted at 10:36 a.m. (0136 GMT) in Hwaderi near Kilju city, Yonhap reported, citing defense officials.

“The field of scientific research in the DPRK (North Korea’s official name) successfully conducted an underground nuclear test under secure conditions on October 9 … at a stirring time when all the people of the country are making a great leap forward in the building of a great prosperous powerful socialist nation,” KCNA reported.

Late Sunday in Washington, the U.S. military told CNN it believed the report to be true, but was working to fully confirm it.

Senior U.S. officials said they also believed the test took place.

MSNBC has the KCNA announcment:

“The field of scientific research in the DPRK successfully conducted an underground nuclear test under secure conditions on October 9, 2006, at a stirring time when all the people of the country are making a great leap forward in the building of a great, prosperous, powerful socialist nation.

“It has been confirmed that there was no such danger as radioactive emission in the course of the nuclear test as it was carried out under scientific consideration and careful calculation.

“The nuclear test was conducted with indigenous wisdom and technology 100 percent. It marks a historic event as it greatly encouraged and pleased the KPA and people that have wished to have powerful self-reliant defense capability.

“It will contribute to defending the peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the area around it.”

The South Koreans are scrambling:

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun called up an emergency security meeting just before the North’s announcement.

The South Korean intelligence had reported to the president that 3.58 magnitude seismic tremor was detected from Hwadaeri near Gilju at 10:36 a,m.

I’m bracing for a completely underwhelming response on our part. With events like this, Iran’s behavior, and the situation in Iraq it’s difficult to see our position as anything but weakening. It will be interesting to see what happens in South Korea, Taiwan, and especially Japan. Further militarization of our allies in the region seems inevitable but that will seriously threaten China. To call this act destabilizing is an understatement.

Update

Reviewing the Chronicle’s report it appears that Donald Rumsfeld and I are in agreement:

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said Thursday that a successful North Korean nuclear weapon test would show weakness on the part of the international community.

“And that failure … is something that the international community would have to register and ask itself how comfortable are we being that ineffective in this situation,” Rumsfeld said.

However, the real problem for us (if we fail to act decisively) is that the bad guys will read this as primarily American weakness.

The International Herald Tribune looks at possible next steps:

LONG-TERM: Other Asian nations, including Japan or South Korea, may seek their own atomic weapons as a safeguard against a nuclear-armed North Korea, possibly triggering a wider arms race that threatens regional stability.

Additional economic sanctions against North Korea may further weaken an already poor and isolated nation.

The risk of nuclear proliferation increases with an impoverished North Korea possible selling nuclear technology to terrorists or other countries.

North Korean Media
Korean Central News Agency (KCNA)

South Korean Media
The Korea Herald
Korea.net
Yonhap News
The Chosun Ilbo

Israel’s recent military aggression is a replica of U.S. horrendous state-sponsored terrorism perpetrated under the pretext of a “war on terrorism.” The barbaric military aggression perpetrated by Israel against Palestine and Lebanon created such a serious situation that a new Mid-east war may break out. The responsibility for this entirely rests with the U.S.

The U.S. seeks to shift the blame for it on to Syria, deliberately linking the current Mid-east situation to the country. This is aimed to brand anti-imperialist and independent Syria as a “criminal” and stifle it.

Quite just are the stand of Syria and its efforts to render positive support and encouragement to Palestine and Lebanon in their resistance against Israel’s military aggression and achieve Mideast peace.

The Korean people extend firm solidarity to Syria and bitterly condemn Israel for having perpetrated armed aggression against Palestine and Lebanon under the U.S. patronage and backing.

Japan said Monday it was considering whether a pre-emptive strike on the North’s missile bases would violate its constitution, signaling a hardening stance ahead of a possible U.N. Security Council vote on Tokyo’s proposal for sanctions against the regime.

Japan was badly rattled by North Korea’s missile tests last week and several government officials openly discussed whether the country ought to take steps to better defend itself, including setting up the legal framework to allow Tokyo to launch a pre-emptive strike against Northern missile sites.

“If we accept that there is no other option to prevent an attack … there is the view that attacking the launch base of the guided missiles is within the constitutional right of self-defense. We need to deepen discussion,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe said.

As cool as this sounds I believe the Japanese may be talking tough to give us some leverage in our negotiations with China. A reinvigorated Japanese military would scare the bejesus out of everyone in the region. There’s also the question of whether Japan is even capable of carrying out such a strike:

Japanese fighter jets and pilots are not capable of carrying out such an attack, a military analyst said.

“Japan’s air force is top class in defending the nation’s airspace, but attacking another country is almost impossible,” said analyst Kazuhisa Ogawa.

“Even if Japan’s planes made it to North Korea, they wouldn’t make it back … it would be an act of suicide,” he said. “Japan has no capacity to wage war.”

Also Blogging:
Captain Ed
Pajamas Media
Hot Air
Morning Coffee
Red Hot Cuppa Politics
Ace of Spades HQ
Glenn Reynolds
Roger L. Simon
Joe’s Dartblog
Dean Esmay
The Pink Flamingo Bar & Grill

Last week’s headlines prove the point: North Korea fires missiles, Iran talks of nukes again, Iraq carnage continues, Israel invades Gaza, England observes one-year anniversary of subway bombing. And, oh, yes, the feds stop a plot to blow up tunnels under the Hudson River.

World War III has begun.

It’s not perfectly clear when it started. Perhaps it was after the Berlin Wall fell and the Cold War ended. Perhaps it was the first bombing of the World Trade Center, in 1993.

What is clear is that this war has a long fuse and, while we are not in the full-scale combat phase that marked World Wars I and II, we seem to be heading there. The expanding hostilities mean it’s time to give this conflict a name, one that focuses the mind and clarifies the big picture.

The war on terror, or the war of terror, has tentacles that reach much of the globe. It is a world war.

While that’s not exactly news to people who follow the war closely this realization does seem to be gaining some ground. I’m not sure how long this uneasy holding pattern will last but I do believe than a significant expansion of hostilities, a full world war, is probably inevitable. Any number of events, in hot spots around the globe, could take us there virtually overnight. It’s still 1939 all over again.

A spokesman for the DPRK Foreign Ministry gave the following answer to a question raised by KCNA Thursday as regards the missile launches in the DPRK: In the wake of the missile launches by the Korean People’s Army the U.S. and some other countries following it, including Japan, are making much ado about a serious development. They are terming them “violation” and “provocation” and calling for “sanctions” and “their referral to the UN Security Council.”

The latest successful missile launches were part of the routine military exercises staged by the KPA to increase the nation’s military capacity for self-defence. The DPRK’s exercise of its legitimate right as a sovereign state is neither bound to any international law nor to bilateral or multilateral agreements such as the DPRK-Japan Pyongyang Declaration and the joint statement of the six-party talks.

The DPRK is not a signatory to the Missile Technology Control Regime and, therefore, is not bound to any commitment under it. As for the moratorium on long-range missile test-fire which the DPRK agreed with the U.S. in 1999, it was valid only when the DPRK-U.S. dialogue was under way. The Bush administration, however, scrapped all the agreements its preceding administration concluded with the DPRK and totally scuttled the bilateral dialogue. The DPRK had already clarified in March 2005 that its moratorium on the missile test-fire lost its validity.

The same can be said of the moratorium on the long-range missile test-fire which the DPRK agreed with Japan in the DPRK-Japan Pyongyang Declaration in 2002. In the DPRK-Japan Pyongyang Declaration the DPRK expressed its “intention to extend beyond 2003 the moratorium on the missile fire in the spirit of the declaration.” This step was taken on the premise that Japan moved to normalize its relations with the DPRK and redeem its past. The Japanese authorities, however, have abused the DPRK’s good faith. They have not honored their commitment but internationalized the “abduction issue,” pursuant to the U.S. hostile policy toward the DPRK, although the DPRK had fully settled the issue. This behavior has brought the overall DPRK-Japan relations to what was before the publication of the declaration.

It is a manifestation of the DPRK’s broad magnanimity that it has put on hold the missile launch so far under this situation. The joint statement of the six-party talks on September 19, 2005 stipulates the commitments to be fulfilled by the six sides to the talks to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. But no sooner had the joint statement been adopted than the U.S. applied financial sanctions against the DPRK and escalated pressure upon it in various fields through them. The U.S., at the same time, has totally hamstrung the efforts for the implementation of the joint statement through such threat and blackmail as large-scale military exercises targeted against the DPRK. It is clear to everyone that there is no need for the DPRK to unilaterally put on hold the missile launch under such situation. Such being a stark fact, it is a far-fetched assertion grossly falsifying the reality for them to claim that the routine missile launches conducted by the KPA for self-defence strain the regional situation and block the progress of the dialogue.

It is a lesson taught by history and a stark reality of the international relations proven by the Iraqi crisis that the upsetting of the balance of force is bound to create instability and crisis and spark even a war. But for the DPRK’s tremendous deterrent for self-defence, the U.S. would have attacked the DPRK more than once as it had listed the former as part of an “axis of evil” and a “target of preemptive nuclear attack” and peace on the Korean Peninsula and in the region would have been seriously disturbed. The DPRK’s missile development, test-fire, manufacture and deployment, therefore, serve as a key to keeping the balance of force and preserving peace and stability in Northeast Asia. It is also preposterous for them to term the latest missile launches a “provocation” and the like for the mere reason that the DPRK did not send prior notice about them.

It would be quite foolish to notify Washington and Tokyo of the missile launches in advance, given that the U.S., which is technically at war with the DPRK, has threatened it since a month ago that it would intercept the latter’s missile in collusion with Japan. We would like to ask the U.S. and Japan if they had ever notified the DPRK of their ceaseless missile launches in the areas close to it. The DPRK remains unchanged in its will to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula in a negotiated peaceful manner just as it committed itself in the September 19 joint statement of the six-party talks. The latest missile launch exercises are quite irrelevant to the six-party talks.

The KPA will go on with missile launch exercises as part of its efforts to bolster deterrent for self-defence in the future, too. The DPRK will have no option but to take stronger physical actions of other forms, should any other country dares take issue with the exercises and put pressure upon it.

But data from U.S. and Japanese Aegis radar-equipped destroyers and surveillance aircraft on the missile’s angle of take-off and altitude indicated that it was heading for waters near Hawaii, the Sankei Shimbun reported, citing multiple sources in the United States and Japan.

North Korea may have targeted Hawaii to show the United States that it was capable of landing a missile there, or because it is home to the headquarters of the U.S. Pacific fleet, the paper said.

Another Taepodong-2 launch may be in the works:

North Korea is showing signs that it might be preparing for the launch of a second Taepodong-2 missile, several government sources said Thursday.

Both Japanese and U.S. spy satellites have spotted on several occasions a ballistic missile, believed to be a Taepodong-2, at a site near a launch facility in Musudanri, northeastern North Korea, according to the sources.

South Korean and Japanese vessels faced off near the Dokdo islets early Wednesday morning even as North Korea was busy firing missiles into the East Sea.

The North’s short- and mid-range missile launches continued for nearly four hours starting at 3:32 a.m. According to government officials, all dropped into the sea on the near side of the Japanese archipelago.

In the midst of all this, the South Korean research vessel Haeyang 2000 pushed on into waters surrounding Dokdo, where it was met by a warning radio call from a Japanese patrol boat to stop. The Haeyang responded it was conducting an oceanic survey of Korean territorial waters and warned the Japanese boat not to interfere. The Japanese did not attempt to seize the vessel as it was escorted by a Korean Coast Guard ship.

The Japanese Foreign Ministry issued a statement expressing “extreme displeasure” at the survey. Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Shotaro Yachi called in Korean Ambassador to Japan Ra Jong-yil to protest.

The Japanese government says it will launch its own “counter-survey”, though no timeframe was mentioned. South Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman Choo Kyu-ho said Japan needs Seoul’s consent for any marine research in Korea’s exclusive economic zone. The EEZ of the two countries overlap in waters near Dokdo, and Japan persists in territorial claims to the Korean islets.

Meanwhile, the North’s missile launches have increased the chances that a U.S. Aegis destroyer will be dispatched into the East Sea. In additions to growing tensions between Japan and Korea, that is quickly making the East Sea the world’s hottest body of water.

Wikipedia has a very detailed entry on this old Korean-Japanese dispute.

Some people will do anything to get attention. Details via CNN/Reuters:

North Korea has launched a missile but it was not the intercontinental missile being monitored by the United States, CNN reported on Tuesday, quoting sources.

CNN said the missile, reported to have landed in the Sea of Japan, was smaller than North Korea’s Taepodong-2 missile, which is believed to be capable of hitting some parts of Alaska.

and from Fox News:

Japanese government officials were trying to determine whether the missiles were Taepodong II, long-range ballistic missiles that have been sitting on a launch pad for weeks, or whether it was a different type of missile.

One U.S. government official told FOX News that if the first were the Taepodong missile, it was “a real big dud.”

It just got serious. Breaking via CNN:

North Korea test-fires at least three missiles, one of them a long-range weapon that the U.S. has been monitoring, U.S. sources say.

It looks like the Taepodong-2 was a dud:

North Korea launched a long-range Taepodong-2 missile early Wednesday in an apparently unsuccessful test that failed in flight, a senior State Department official said.

North Korea also tested at least two smaller missiles, U.S. sources told CNN.

John Murney asks:

Can someone out there please explain to me why Iraq was invaded, while North Korea remains uninvaded?

Unfortunately we’ll probably see the usual expression of diplomatic “outrage” and other symbolic acts while the North Koreans continue to tinker with nukes. Sanctions? Bleh.

Fox broadcast reports that John Bolton is working the phones in an urgent attempt to reach members of the U.N. Security Council.

Life goes on:

The mountain that houses NORAD is right outside my window, probably a half-mile down the canyon. Should I feel safer, or wouldn’t they target it?

I’m taking Ellie to the dog park.

Not that she deserves it, after throwing up on my bed twice last night. Once at 3 a.m., on the sheets, right by my pillow, and I woke up with dog puke on my arm. So I get up, change the sheets, take a shower … lovely.

Dog puke is the greater short-term threat but if the world continues to let countries like North Korea continue on this path we’ll all have reason to worry.

Bill Clinton’s name is popping up all over the blogosphere and cable news shows right now:

What makes North Korea a tremendous danger to the world is that now, thanks to the Clinton Administration and former President Jimmy Carter, North Korea does have nuclear weapons in it’s arsenal.

Fox News broadcast just reported that up to 6 missiles have been launched. Dongs are flying all over the place. It’s not a good day to be a fisherman in the Sea of Japan.

South Korean media is reporting a total of 10 missiles fired:

North Korea on Wednesday test-launched 10 short-, medium- and long-range missiles, Yonhap news agency reported, citing South Korean intelligence officials.

The number of tests exceeded the six that the United States had so far estimated. All of the missiles are believed to have landed in the waters between the Korean peninsula and Japan.

John Howard is pissed:

John Howard has labelled North Korea’s latest missile test extremely provocative and called on other countries to condemn the launch.

The Prime Minister said he was still gathering information on the nature of the tests, but Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary said North Korea fired up to six missiles early today, with CNN television reporting that one of the missiles was a long-range Taepodong-2.

“But whether they are big or small missiles, or a combination of the two, this development is very provocative and runs completely counter to the interests of North Korea and the interests of the whole region,” Mr Howard told ABC radio.

I think everyone, except maybe China, Iran, and Syria probably agree with you John but does anyone have a plan for putting a stop to this?

The Security Council will meet in the morning:

The U.N. Security Council plans to meet in closed session on North Korea’s long-anticipated missile testing on Wednesday morning, a French spokesman said.

The meeting was requested late on Tuesday by Japan’s U.N. ambassador, Kenzo Oshima, who is expected to introduce a draft resolution, diplomatic sources said.

Do I think it will amount to much? Not really. We’ve been ineffective for decades. Why shift gears now? Besides, despite all the hype, there is a much more immediate threat in Iran.

I had to fight the urge to use a title like this:

Kim Jung Il’s Dong Goes Soft

Mine was much much worse but you’ve been spared.

It turns out that North Korea has a July 4th message for Hugo Chavez:

Kim Yong Nam, president of the Presidium of the DPRK Supreme People’s Assembly, Monday sent a message of greetings to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez Frias on the occasion of the day of its independence. The message reaffirmed the DPRK’s full support and solidarity with the president and people of Venezuela in their efforts to resolutely defend the Bolivarian revolution from the U.S. attempt for interference and aggression and expressed the belief that bonds of friendship and cooperation between the two countries would grow stronger in the future.

But they’ve issued that press release before.

CNN is reporting a later firing on a seventh missile. I guess South Korean reports of 10 were overblown:

The Japanese Defense Agency said one ballistic missile was fired from southeastern North Korea around 5:20 p.m. (4:20 a.m. ET), landing in the Sea of Japan about 10 minutes later.

The range of the missile has not been confirmed by CNN. However, Japanese news agencies said it was medium-range.

Related:
NORAD at Bravo-Plus: Ready for North Korean Missile Launch

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Operators at NORAD, deep inside Cheyenne Mountain, have prepared for years for a missile launch from North Korea.

“We want to make the President make a smart decision, we don’t want to start World War III,” said Lt. Col. Ed Maitland, NORAD. “So we have to make sure, without a doubt, that this information is accurate.”

If a launch should occur, satellites would detect heat and will immediately contact NORAD with a “quick alert.”

During a test run, an animation showed the would-be “missile” going into radar coverage where NORAD could predict the impact point. The decision to retaliate is then made by the president.

According to KRDO-TV in Colorado NORAD is at a heightened “Bravo-Plus” security level:

There are five levels of alert: normal, Alpha (low), Bravo (medium), Charlie (high) and Delta (critical). “Bravo-Plus” is slightly higher than a medium threat level.

The Cheyenne Mountain Air Station And Buckley Air Force Base are among four installations in the country at the higher alert level ordered last week by then- Acting-Commander of Air Force Space Command, General Fred Klotz.

Space Command would not comment on the reason for the security increase.

The order also affects Vandenberg Air Force Base in California and Patrick air force base in Florida.

Meanwhile the North Koreans report:

The U.S. has deployed latest “U-2 S Block 20″ in south Korea, timed to coincide with its evermore undisguised military threat and blackmail against the DPRK. This is another grave military provocation against the DPRK and an extremely dangerous move for a war of aggression against it to push the situation on the Korean Peninsula to the brink of war. A spokesman for the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland said this in a statement on June 30.

The reality clearly indicates that the U.S. remains unchanged in its criminal attempt to stifle the DPRK by force of arms, the statement noted, and continued:

The U.S. is recklessly driving the situation on the peninsula to the brink of war, preoccupied with the moves for a war against the DPRK. This grave situation once again goes to prove that peace has been preserved on the peninsula so far entirely thanks to the DPRK’s strong war deterrent. Now that the U.S. is set to ignite a nuclear war for the purpose of disturbing peace and stability on the peninsula by force, the DPRK is compelled to bolster up its deterrent for self-defence under the uplifted banner of Songun.
The army and people of the DPRK are fully prepared to counter any provocation and challenge of the U.S.

It sounds scary but don’t be alarmed by the tone of the North Korean news. It’s sounded like that for decades.

Related:
Cheyenne Mountain Air Station
Buckley Air Force Base
Vandenberg Air Force Base
Patrick Air Force Base

Direct Talks between DPRK and U.S. Urged
Voices accusing the U.S. administration of its Korea policy and calling for DPRK-U.S. direct talks for a solution to the nuclear issue are growing louder in the U.S. political circles these days. Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Armitage in an interview with the Kyodo News of Japan criticized the Korea policy of Bush, advising the U.S. administration

David Strube, former section chief for Korean affairs of the U.S. State Department, told a reporter that Bush was unwilling to have dialogue with the DPRK, judging from the abuses he hurled on its leadership. At the six-party talks, he noted, Bush insisted on the strategy of putting pressure on the DPRK while convincing it that it was “isolated” in the international community. But, in actuality, it is the U.S. and Japan that were isolated at the talks.

He ridiculed the U.S. act of ignoring the reasoning of other countries participating in the six-party talks. U.S. Senator Joseph Biden told a reporter that Bush’s Korea policy had come a cropper. The U.S. needs to have direct talks with the DPRK for a solution to the nuclear issue, he said.

That’s about as reserved and rational as KCNA gets.