France Pushing for Intervention in Mali – And They Will Get It

France Pushing for Intervention in Mali – And They Will Get It

mali France Pushing for Intervention in Mali And They Will Get It

The war of words is already pretty intense:

Al Qaeda-linked Islamists in Mali threatened on Saturday to “open the doors of hell” for French citizens if France kept pushing for a war to retake the rebel-held north.

The renewed threats against French hostages and expatriates came ahead of a summit of French-speaking nations in Congo, where President Francois Hollande was expected to urge the rapid deployment of an African-led force to rout the Islamists.

…”If he continues to throw oil on the fire, we will send him the pictures of dead French hostages in the coming days,” said Oumar Ould Hamaha, a spokesman for Islamist group MUJWA, in an apparent reference to four French nationals seized in neighboring northern Niger in 2010.

“He will not be able to count the bodies of French expatriates across West Africa and elsewhere,” Hamaha said by telephone.

Allowing these groups to hold territory and consolidate power is intolerable so intervention is inevitable. Only the timing and scope are in question. The stakes are no doubt high for expats in West Africa but this conflict could reach back to France in the form of terrorism as well. How big is the threat on the European continent? I don’t know but it will be interesting to watch this unfold.

Covert Contact has been monitoring Mali for several months and today I rolled out a seven column widescreen live social media monitor there for this conflict. Additional monitors will probably be added as this escalates.

Maps courtesy of the CIA World Factbook

Another Gun Battle at Tripoli Airport

Another misunderstanding in Libya:

“Mukhtar Al-Akhdar, commander of a militia unit from Zintan, south-west of Tripoli, which controls the international airport, told Reuters a convoy of vehicles approached a checkpoint about 3 km from the airport.

He said the armed men in the convoy said they had come to take over security, and a gunfight then broke out.

“No one was killed. We have only two people injured on our side,” Al-Akhdar said. “These people were using national army vehicles. When we asked (acting army chief of staff Khalifa) Haftar about it, he said he did not know these people.”

He said the row was defused after intervention from the head of the National Transitional Council (NTC) Mustafa Abdel Jalil, caretaker Prime Minister Abdurrahim El-Keib and Defence Minister Osama Al-Juwali.”

These kinds of skirmishes seem to occur pretty regularly during this transition but there are some encouraging signs here. First, they seem to start small and end small. They are not, for the most part, spiraling out of control. It is also encouraging to see these disagreements get resolved once NTC political officials, who are a little higher up the chain, get involved. They’re either offering these militia leaders some kind of payout or there’s legitimate respect for the central government. Whatever the reason, diffusing these clashes, and transitioning areas from militia to state control is essential. As of now, the NTC appears to be making some initial progress.

Recommended on Twitter: @ntc_of_libya. The National Transitional Council of Libya.

Follow developments in Libya live on the Blogs of War Libya Monitor at http://libya.blogsofwar.com.

Ethiopian Force Moves Into Somalia Ahead of Coalition Talks

Their government denies this but eyewitness reports are streaming in from multiple sources:

Several hundred Ethiopian troops crossed on Saturday into southern and central Somalia, local elders said, but Addis Ababa dismissed the reports as “absolutely not true.”

“There are several hundred Ethiopian troops here in lorries and some armoured vehicles too,” said elder Abdi Ibrahim Warsame, speaking by telephone from Gurel town, in Somalia’s central Galgudud region.

Ethiopian forces were also reported in the Hiran region at the town of Beletweyne, some 30 kilometres (18 miles) into Somalia, an area contested by Islamist Shebab rebels and pro-government militia.

This may be just the start:

An alliance of mostly East African nations is preparing a coordinated military campaign in Somalia to finish off the embattled al-Shabab extremist group. The al-Qaida-inspired extremists were driven out of the Somali capital, Mogadishu by African Union troops in August, and have recently lost ground to advancing Kenyan forces in the south. The plan includes possibly sending Ethiopian troops back to Somalia.

The ongoing Kenyan operation in southern Somalia, and al-Shabab’s recent collapse in Mogadishu, are raising hopes that the militants’ stranglehold on Somalia can be broken.

Toward that end, heads of state from the six-nation Horn of Africa regional bloc known as IGAD will meet next Friday to discuss a military strategy aimed at greatly expanding the control of Somalia’s weak Transitional Federal Government.

al-Shabaab has a tough road ahead. They face a multipronged coalition offensive and a dizzying array of covert activities aimed at their destruction. It may be impossible to completely eliminate these groups but their impact can be minimized. It appears that, at the very least, their ability to own strategically important ground will be broken.

Recommended on Twitter: @igadsecretariat – The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) is a seven-country regional development organization in East Africa.

Follow developments in Somalia and other African nations with the Blogs of War Africa Monitor at http://africa.blogsofwar.com.

Kenya Seeks U.S. Assistance in the Fight Against al-Shabaab

It looks like an official request for ISR support has been made by Kenya:

Kenya’s government has made an urgent appeal to the Obama administration for the Pentagon to provide intelligence and logistical support to Kenya’s faltering month-old military operation in Somalia against the Shabab, a powerful Al Qaeda-linked militia.

Administration officials are considering the request, which came through the State Department, to provide military surveillance and reconnaissance that could include imagery from drone aircraft. Such aid would represent a significant expansion of U.S. involvement in the chaotic East African nation.

The story makes it seem like this is a completely unexpected request that will require thoughtful consideration by the Obama administration. However, reports of U.S. distance from, or disinterest in, the Kenyan offensive fall short of believable for me. Whatever your take, this is yet another sign of escalation in Africa.

Recommended on Twitter: @AbdiOMohammed – Abdi O. Mohammed is a Kenyan Air Force Soldier.

Follow developments in Africa live on the Blogs of War Africa Monitor at http://africa.blogsofwar.com.