Monthly Archives: October 2012

Hurricane Sandy – Damage Assessment and Recovery Live Streams

Hurricane Sandy – Damage Assessment and Recovery Live Streams

ccsandyrec Hurricane Sandy   Damage Assessment and Recovery Live Streams

Sandy lived up to the hype and extensive rescue and recovery operations are underway this morning. I have updated the Hurricane Sandy Monitor to reflect this and to better track the relief effort. The monitor now tracks:

  • Hurricane Sandy – Any mention of the storm.
  • Power Issues – Around 7 million people are without electricity this morning and may be so for many days.
  • Disaster Relief – Discussions about the relief effort.
  • Donations Needed – Calls for assistance and support.
  • Casualties – Deaths and injuries related to the storm.
  • Damage – Any discussions about flooded areas, fires, etc.
  • Videos/Photos – Media related to the storm.

You can launch the monitor from the Covert Contact demo site by clicking on the big green button below:

start button Hurricane Sandy   Damage Assessment and Recovery Live Streams

Subscriptions to Covert Contact’s array of over 140 topic monitors and 400 live social media streams are available for only $10 per month.

Hurricane Sandy Live Streams – Widescreen Monitor

ccsssandywide Hurricane Sandy Live Streams   Widescreen Monitor

Sandy is shaping up to become a truly dangerous storm:

“It’s going to affect millions and cost billions,” he said. The storm will cause flooding and power outages that could last for days or weeks.

The storm is an unusual combination of a tropical weather system with a cold air mass that Moss called a “truly historic” event and said would act more like a nor’easter than a hurricane.

Most jurisdictions in the area – New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia – declared states of emergency and set up shelters in anticipation of the storm.

The potential for deadly storm surge is of particular concern:

This afternoon’s 3:30 pm EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy’s winds at a modest 2.8 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was record high: 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed since 1969, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy is now forecast to bring a near-record storm surge of 6 – 11 feet to Northern New Jersey and Long Island Sound, including the New York City Harbor. This storm surge has the potential to cause many billions of dollars in damage if it hits near high tide at 9 pm EDT on Monday. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month. This will add another 2 – 3″ to water levels. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the peak storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. Sandy’s storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13′ and a storm tide of 9.5′ above MLLW to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 – 12″ shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy’s storm surge is expected to be at least a foot higher than Irene’s. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening’s high tide at 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City’s subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 50% chance that Sandy’s storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.

I am rolling out a widescreen Hurricane Sandy Monitor to both subscribers and demo users as a public service. This monitor looks at mentions of the storm, discussions about storm surge, wind damage, flooding, causalities, warnings, and links to related videos and photos. Subscribers can access the monitor via the main menu now. If you are not a subscriber just hit the big green button below to launch the demo and access the monitor.

start button Hurricane Sandy Live Streams   Widescreen Monitor

Subscriptions to Covert Contact’s array of over 140 topic monitors and 400 live social media streams are available for only $10 per month.

Hurricane Sandy Live Streams

Hurricane Sandy Live Streams

ccsssandy Hurricane Sandy Live Streams

Update:
I’ve made a seven column widescreen monitor for hurricane Sandy available to the public.

Original Post:
This could be a very significant weather event:

Confidence continues to grow that Sandy will be a major threat to portions of the U.S. East Coast.

..Though we feel that it’s likely Sandy will hit some portion of the Northeast or Mid-Atlantic coast, there remains uncertainty with the exact timing, location and magnitude of the worst impacts. The forecast involves a rare, complex atmospheric setup that will allow the system to pivot back to the northwest into the region rather than simply moving out to sea.

..What kind of impacts are we talking about?

Destructive winds, heavy rain, major coastal flooding and beach erosion would pummel portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions between later Sunday and Tuesday of next week. Of course, the high winds would extend inland, with the potential for downed trees and powerlines. Widespread power outages could last for days.

This setup could even wrap in just enough cold air on its western edge to produce wet snow, possibly heavy, in some parts of the central Appalachians (mountains of West Virginia and Pennsylvania).

Residents from New England to New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Virginia should remain vigilant and begin to prepare for Sandy’s impact.

I’ve just added a Hurricane Sandy Monitor to Covert Contact. It tracks mentions of the storm, related warnings, and discussions about damage, surge, flooding, and casualties. Subscribers can find it under the “Events” section of the main menu.

Chapter One of Powerful Peace: A Navy SEAL’s Lessons on Peace from a Lifetime at War

Chapter One of Powerful Peace: A Navy SEAL’s Lessons on Peace from a Lifetime at War

J. Robert DuBois has generously offered the first chapter of book Powerful Peace: A Navy SEAL’s Lessons on Peace from a Lifetime at War to Blogs of War readers at my request. I think it’s an important read. In it, Rob lays out a highly credible and sensible plan for developing personal awareness and finding balance in our quest for security. I hope you will take time to read it.

We are also currently working on an interview which you will hopefully see here in the next couple of weeks. In the meantime you can follow him on Twitter and at PowerfulPeace.net.

Chapter 1 – Hate

September 11, 2001

The history of violent conflict traces back in many oral traditions to the very first humans. This opening chapter offers a first-hand account of one of the most hate-based and hate-producing events of modern history. Close the book for a moment, and take a second look at the cover. The number in the bottom-right corner of my photo is the original date stamp of that shot, taken while training Arab SEALs at their base in the Middle East. It was exactly seven days before September 11, 2001. And it was exactly seven days after my wife and children flew out of Boston on a flight number that two weeks later would be incinerated and immortalized in fire and blood. Yes, friends…I am familiar with hate.

In hatred as in love, we grow like the thing we brood upon. What we loathe, we graft into our very soul. – Mary Renault

image01 e1351093523192 Chapter One of Powerful Peace: A Navy SEALs Lessons on Peace from a Lifetime at War

Teammate Shaun Marriott and I perfect the art of force application. (Note brass shell ejecting above scope.)

My American SEAL platoon and our Arab SEAL hosts watched in living color on satellite television as the second plane dissolved into the second of the Twin Towers. It was approaching evening where we were, several months into a deployment to the Persian Gulf. We sat frozen, burning in silent rage, staring as nearly twenty deluded murderers exploited the most advanced technology to carry out the most primitive evil. Having slashed women to death with razor knives, these “men” committed suicide, proving they were brave enough and strong enough to kill thousands of innocents—among them unsuspecting office workers, little old ladies, and infants.

These murderers called themselves “warriors.”

We were all naval commandos in that room, some American, others the “local nationals” we had been sent to train. Ironically painful and poignant, we had been teaching our hosts skills that would make them better at killing terrorists. Yet not one of us could lift a finger to prevent what was happening in the United States.

As we sat together in that remote Middle Eastern barracks, each was very much alone with his thoughts. The Americans thought of loved ones and Teammates a world away. My Arab friends thought of…well, I hope to one day share another cup of tea and ask them. (As you may imagine, things got a little busy during the days that followed. Within weeks, I would be conducting reconnaissance for the invasion of Afghanistan.)

There we all were. Nearly twenty Arabs and Americans, living together in those barracks; nearly twenty Arabs, dying together in dispersed teams of terrorist hijackers. Had those cowardly bastards chosen to face our little international group, man to man, 9/11 would have turned out differently. They wouldn’t have had to work so hard to make their way to hell, for one thing. At our hands, hell would have come up roaring to greet them.

And three thousand gentle, innocent souls would still be alive with their families.

Not one word was spoken for hours during the spectacle. If one of the local SEALs had laughed or expressed any satisfaction in what we were witnessing, I believe I would have killed him on the spot. This is not a boast. It’s a confession, a shameful admission. I’m very ashamed it’s true. These were my friends, but we were so choked with hurt; we were so thirsty for revenge.

Here was a bitterly painful sense of helplessness, for some of the most dangerous men on earth. We were supposed to be the protectors of our countrymen. Each December Seventh at the SEAL Delivery Vehicle (SDV) Team in Hawaii, in fact, we swam the five miles around Pearl Harbor’s Ford Island. Commemorating the original Day of Infamy in 1941, this ceremony sent the message that hostile actors were welcome to attack again if they wished…we would be ready this time.

Instead, in September sixty years later, we were on the wrong side of the planet.

We were supposed to be the ones who would sacrifice all so fellow citizens could sleep safe in their beds at night. Yet we would sleep through that night with troubled dreams, safe in our own beds, while thousands of innocents under our protection suffered and died in a crushing, inescapable nightmare.

In addition, within our platoon I had the unique awareness that only two Tuesdays earlier, my wife and children had flown from Boston to California, just as a plane I had watched disintegrate had been scheduled to do. Later, my wife would tell me a strange detail. During the early part of their flight on August 28th, a man of apparent Middle Eastern descent had been roaming the cabin and studying the passenger seating, crew stations, wings and more. He had been carrying an Arabic language newspaper. She wrote it off as unreasonable suspicion on her part, but remained troubled by his intense focus on surveying the airplane…especially the wings. Of course, this may have all been coincidence.

It is no coincidence, however, that I have a personal understanding of hatred. That’s the first thing I want you to understand.

Unlike my loved ones sobbing through a tortured morning rush hour in the United States, I sat among Arab friends and allies in the Middle East and watched 9/11 unfold. Some in my mixed group of highly trained commandos may have empathized with the grievances of the al Qaeda (AQ) terrorists piloting those improvised cruise missiles.

If that last statement strains your comfort level, I’m satisfied. Peacemaking is not the fluffy stuff of rainbows and unicorns. It is not exclusive to well-intentioned activists shouting “Ban War!” Peacemaking is the right—and the burden—of all of us, and it sometimes includes the use of force. Without just war, Hitler’s quest would have destroyed millions more. Genuine conflict reduction requires the capacity and willingness to strike, combined with a determined restraint and the guts to stare straight into the face of hate…and then choose a reasoned response.

Yes, some of my friends did (and do) empathize with the grievances AQ uses to justify hijacking airplanes. Note the careful use of this phrase “empathize with the grievances.” I know none of our Arab partners in that host platoon were radicalized terrorists. If one had been, he would have exploited our trust and killed us while we slept. The symbolic value of slaughtering a few American SEALs would have been irresistible. As demonstrated by the 9/11 hijackers, even sacrificing his own life to accomplish this would have been acceptable to an extremist with an opportunity.

This may be difficult to reconcile according to our ordinary sense of reality, but we are in extraordinary times. Extraordinary times call for extraordinary effort. If we have the courage to consider the Other’s reality, empathy with grievances is possible and productive.

Here’s one poorly hidden elephant in the room: Unresolved grievances and the anxieties they compel keep solutions at arm’s length. In many of the countries I’ve visited around the Middle East, the horror of Palestinian children killed in Israeli attacks is advertised widely and discussed passionately. For Israelis, on the other hand, the constant threat of devastating Palestinian rocket and suicide bomber attacks is a deep and chronic pain that can make reasoned negotiation seem unreasonable. Neither side will ever run out of iron-clad reasons to avenge the pain it has suffered; nor will either side ever accept its own marginalization or elimination, so all the struggle and rhetoric in pursuit of dominance for either extreme can only serve to prolong the suffering of innocents within both populations.

Many participants can sense this. Isn’t it time many more admitted it? Isn’t it time both parties, with their thoughts on their children, stared straight into the face of hate and said “Enough?”

As mentioned earlier, actor/director Don Cheadle and humanitarian John Prendergast have done exactly that in another abscess of raging human conflict in another part of the world. You’ll read about their “Enough Project” and book, The Enough Moment, in chapter 25 on Commonality.

Only the absolute cessation of violence allows space to work through underlying issues and pursue stability and reconciliation to benefit both parties. Yet all too often, hatred is so intense that a participant will choose personal suffering over personal peace as the price required to cause his adversary pain.

Until squabbling siblings, barroom brawlers or aggressing armies establish at least a cold truce, until the participants can “cause a pause,” the cycle of retaliatory violence continues to escalate and solutions fly ever further from reality…and more innocents suffer for our folly. At the most basic level there is no such thing as a corporation, an army, a nation, or even the book club where you may be reading this—each of these entities is nothing more than a collection of individual human beings in willing cooperation, backed up in some cases by lists which are also nothing more than shared understandings between individuals.

The human is the lowest common denominator, from the smallest to the greatest social organization we have ever established. This universal individuality, to be revisited later on in the sections on Heart and Soul, is the reason peace cannot spread except by individual choices and actions…like yours. Understanding and peace don’t come about by some mysterious accident while we squabble over crumbs. Boardroom, bedroom and battlefield are universally populated only by individual human beings, and only those who consciously choose and act can improve conditions for all of us.

The solution lies not at but between the extremes. Only here can balance—and peace for those under your care—be found.

Live Streaming National Security Tweets on the Kindle

Live Streaming National Security Tweets on the Kindle

cckindle Live Streaming National Security Tweets on the Kindle

I have a Kindle in my hand fairly often and wanted a way to check in on key national security issues without switching to another device so I threw this together. It’s easy enough to do with Kindle’s experimental browser but does require some specific adjustments in refresh frequency and formatting. It’s not nearly as robust as the 400+ live feeds on Covert Contact but it is pretty handy for briefly checking in on important topics and could come in very handy if other access isn’t available during an emerging event. It’s unreleased for now but that might change once I tweak it a bit and if there’s some interest.