I was hoping to wake up this morning to a forecast that would be more favorable to our area but it’s actually looking worse:
THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND ANALYSES FROM CIMMS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT IKE IS UNDERGOING ABOUT 15 KT OF NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL LANDFALL. THAT…COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF AN INNER CORE…SUGGESTS SLOW STRENGTHENING AT BEST. HOWEVER…IKE IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT STRONG CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER…AND THE SHEAR HAS NOT STOPPED THE STORM FROM STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL…WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING AN INTENSITY OF JUST OVER 100 KT. BASED ON THIS…THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR IKE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HR. IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL…AND IT IS FORECAST TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HR AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
I was on Galveston most of the evening to help a friend with business on the island and Ike’s presence could definitely be seen and felt. Tides were high and the sea was quite rough.
The drive to Galveston was eerie. There were few cars heading South and many heading North. Occasionally, we’d seen long convoys of ambulances speeding North with lights and sirens blazing. Hospital evacuations were still underway.
Arriving on the island it looked, initially at least, deserted. Most business were boarded up and there was little traffic on the street. We made our way to Seawall Boulevard (map) and found it lined with media and satellite trucks.
Camera crews were shining bright lights into the rough surf to illuminate the dramatic background for reporter standups and a few, two dozen at most, locals and tourists were watching the media. We parked and stepped out to view the surf and were almost immediately greeted by a local screaming that Ike was out for blood, the city was corrupt, and that Ike was God’s wrath for this corruption. He cited a the city’s unwillingness to install handrails on the sea wall as evidence. God must be holding Galveston to a pretty high standard if overlooking handrails is enough to justify complete destruction of the city.
We were approached by the crazy man’s handler who told us that he was a local who planned to ride out the storm in an older two-story building. Surprisingly, he expressed concern about the number of locals who were planning to ride out the storm on the island. We clearly weren’t running into Galveston’s brightest residents. Those folks were well North of the island.
I used to live in Galveston and know that many local BOI (Born on the island) types think that any building that survived the 1900 storm will serve as adequate shelter for any storm that will follow. That logic is deeply flawed in the face of the kind of sea wall topping surge that we may see with Ike. We encouraged the man and his insane friend to leave. I have no doubt that they’ll stay.
We left Seawall and drove around the East side of the island. It was clear that most people had evacuated but there were still hundreds, possibly even a few thousand, people still on the island. It’s possible that many of them are waiting until the last minute to leave. I suspect that many of the remaining residents will bug out this morning since Ike is still dialed in on our area. I fear the worst for those who stay.
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