Monthly Archives: August 2008

Gustav – Exact Destination Unknown but Major Hurricane Status Probable

August 29, 2008
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John Little

There’s still a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the storm’s track and I expect that to be the case for the next 36-48 hours:

GUSTAV IS MOVING AT ABOUT 295/7 BUT IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING TO THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH…AND IS HEADED FOR A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PATH OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA IN ROUGHLY 36 HOURS…FOLLOWED BY A TRACK INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER…THE MODELS DIVERGE TREMENDOUSLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE HIGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MODELS THAT SHOW A SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES HIGH…WHILE THOSE THAT ARE FASTER AND STRAIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOW LESS OF THAT RIDGING. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS…GIVING RESPECT TO THE NWS MODELS GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF…WHICH ALSO SEEM TO DEPICT A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SYSTEM THAT WE EXPECT GUSTAV TO BE. NEEDLESS TO SAY…DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN…AND FINAL LANDFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

The NHC forecast may bounce left and right a few miles for the next few days but residents from Texas to Florida should remain vigilant until the track is dialed in.

It’s McCain-Palin in 2008!

CNN is confirming the historic pick:

She catapulted to the post with a strong reputation as a political outsider, forged during her stint in local politics. She was mayor and a council member of the small town of Wasila and was chairman of the state Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, which regulates Alaska’s oil and gas resources, in 2003 and 2004.

The conservative Palin defeated two so-called political insiders to win the governor’s job — incumbent Gov. Frank Murkowski in the GOP primary and former two-term Democratic Gov. Tony Knowles in the 2006 general election.

Palin made her name in part by backing tough ethical standards for politicians. During the first legislative session after her election, her administration passed a state ethics law overhaul.

There’s more on Sarah Palin and earlier media confirmations in my previous post.

McCain-Palin ’08: CNBC Reports McCain Has Picked Sarah Palin for Vice President

This has not been confirmed:

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a self-styled “hockey mom” who has only been governor for a little over a year, is GOP Presidential candidate John McCain’s choice for Vice President, CNBC has learned.

According to a Republican strategist, Palin is the nominee, though McCain’s campaign has not comfirmed this.

Hope for a Palin pick diminished this morning with reports that she was staying in Alaska:

But the possibility of a surprise pick also looms as the McCain camp remains mum at this hour about just who will be joining their candidate on stage in battleground Ohio.

But one person who will not be there: Palin. The Governor’s spokesperson, Sharon Leighow, tells ABC News she’s going to the State Fair in Anchorage, Alaska.

The Chicago Tribune’s Washington Bureau blog is pointing to Palin as well:

A Republican source confirms that John McCain has chosen Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to be his running mate. Campaign officials, however, remain mum this morning.

And now Fox News has confirmed Palin as well. It looks pretty certain now.

More on Sarah Palin
Governor of Alaska Home Page
Wikipedia Bio
Sarah Palin on the Issues

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John McCain Should Reveal His Vice Presidential Pick Today

It sounds like the more controversial candidates were bypassed in favor of a safer pick:

McCain will appear with his No. 2 at an Ohio rally on Friday, aides said, though they provided no details on whom he had chosen to join the Republican ticket. At least two more rallies are planned for Pennsylvania and Missouri in the run up to next week’s convention.

Others believed to be in contention include Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who was vacationing on New York’s Long Island, and former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge.

However, fueling speculation that McCain had chosen either Pawlenty or Romney or another conservative Republican, two GOP officials said they believed McCain had picked a traditional candidate. They based their conclusion on the fact that the campaign, which once had put the party on notice to prepare for the possibility of an unconventional candidate, does not have preparations in place to curb the fallout from a right flank that certainly would revolt if Ridge, an abortion-rights backer, or Lieberman, a former Democrat, was on the ticket.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry Suspends Republican National Convention Plans Ahead of Gustav Threat

It continues to look like the Republican National Convention will be significantly impacted by Gustav:

Gov. Rick Perry has suspended his plans to attend the Republican National Convention next week in St. Paul because of the potential problems that could be caused by the looming Tropical Storm Gustav, which is expected to grow into a hurricane later today.

The governor was to host the Monday kick-off breakfast of the Texas delegation, as well as a prayer meeting. He also had a prime speaking spot on the convention scheduled.

If Gustav diminishes or makes land-fall outside of Texas, the governor could still resume his political schedule.

Gov. Perry is making the right call here and Gustav is also an opportunity for Republicans to show Americans exactly what putting the country first means. It’s an opportunity for action rather than talk.

I’ll be keeping an eye on the Governor’s Division of Emergency Management SITREPS. It’s not looking good for Texas at the moment.