Dr. Jeff Masters: Gustav Is Strenghtening – It’s Time to Leave New Orleans

I couldn’t agree more:

Today is the 3rd anniversary of Hurricane Katrina’s catastrophic hit on the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama coast. Unfortunately, I think that people living in New Orleans should mark the anniversary of Katrina by getting the heck out of the city. You live at the bottom of a bowl, ten or so feet below sea level. This is not natural. Nature wants to fill up this bowl with huge quantities of Gulf of Mexico sea water. There is a storm capable of doing that bearing down on you. If you live in New Orleans, I suggest you take a little Labor Day holiday–sooner, rather than later, to beat the rush–and get out of town. Gustav is going to come close to you, and there’s no sense messing with a major hurricane capable of pushing a Category 3 storm surge to your doorstep. Don’t test those Category 3 rated–but untested–levees. Conventional pre-Katrina wisdom suggested that the city needed 72 hours to evacuate. With the population about half of the pre-Katrina population, that lead time is about 60 hours. With Gustav likely to bring tropical storm force winds to the city by Monday afternoon, that means that tonight is a good time to start evacuating–Saturday morning at the latest. Voluntary evacuations have already begun, which is a good idea.

As I said earlier expect nothing but bad news from here on out. All signs are pointing towards an incredibly dangerous storm:

Visible satellite loops continue to show a well-organized and intensifying storm that is growing larger in size. Upper-level outflow is established in all quadrants and is growing. Low-level spiral bands are multiplying and intensifying, and the amount and intensity of Gustav’s heavy thunderstorms are steadily increasing. A well-defined eye has appeared, and Gustav appears poised to enter a phase of rapid intensification. Radar from Pilon, Cuba shows the developing spiral bands of Gustav quite well. Dry air is not evident anywhere close to Gustav.