Rapid Strengthening Still Expected for Gustav – Models Focus on New Orleans Area

The 5AM update from the National Hurricane Center shows that, unfortunately, not much has changed:

A STEADY INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY…ESPECIALLY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INTO THE MORE OPEN WATERS NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT…AND COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM WATERS…RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CENTER IS NEAR OR SOUTH OF
WESTERN CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM EARLIER DUE TO THE INITIAL WEAKENING BUT STILL SHOWS THE STORM BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE LONGER-TERM…THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF UPPER-WIND PATTERNS…BUT IN GENERAL THE UPPER WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

Meanwhile the GFDL andother major models have started to zero in on the New Orleans area again:

Gov. Bobby Jindal is already taking action and has asked Louisiana residents to start making plans now:

Jindal has called in the Crisis Action Team of the Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness to keep watch on the storm. The team regularly contacts the National Weather Service, he said.

The National Guard has been placed on alert and is on standby.

“I do think our state is better prepared” than it was in 2005 when Katrina caused so much damage and cost 1,000 lives in New Orleans, he said. The Legislature invested “tens of millions of dollars” in communication equipment so all emergency agencies can communicate, hundred of buses are under contract to respond to evacuate people with no transportation, and millions of dollars are invested in shelters.

Also, Jindal said FEMA and local government agencies are better prepared to serve people in need, should the hurricane affect the state.

“Even as the state is better prepared, it is important for families to be personally responsible” by securing adequate food, water, prescription medicines and safety for their pets, the governor said. “They should not wait until the storm has entered the Gulf before they go to store to buy batteries and necessary supplies.”

Jindal said he is prepared to cancel his trip to speak at the Republican National Convention if Gustav threatens the state.

“My priority is the state of Louisiana,” he said. “As long as there’s a chance our state is in the path of the storm, I’ll be in Louisiana.”

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