Blogs of War

There’s really not much happening at the moment, outside of what is expected to a be minor encounters with Haiti and Cuba, that can slow down Gustav’s intensification:

According to Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet, “The longer Gustav stays over the warm water in the Caribbean, the stronger it gets and the greater the chance that it will become a Category 3 hurricane by Saturday.”

Kocet adds, “The storm will weaken if it moves close to Cuba, but it will strengthen if it tracks farther south across the Caribbean.”

If Gustav is able to thread the needle, passing through the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Mexico, it could intensify to Category 4 or 5 strength over the warm water in the Gulf.

If it makes it to the Gulf, Gustav could be the first major hurricane (Category 3 or greater) in the Gulf since Hurricane Wilma reached Category 3 strength as it steered from the Yucatan peninsula to south Florida in October 2005.

All interests in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico and Florida should closely monitor Gustav as it moves through the Caribbean.

Dr. Jeff Master’s has just posted his thoughts on a possible track for the storm:

The models are in good agreement on the 1-3 day track of Gustav, and we can be confident that Gustav will turn west and pass south of Cuba after a close encounter with the southwest peninsula of Haiti. The trough of low pressure currently exiting the U.S. East Coast and pulling Gustav northwest is expected to move off to the east, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in and force Gustav due west or slightly south of due west. After three days, there is more divergence in the models. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models foresee a landfall in the Cancun/Cozumel region on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, followed by a second Mexican landfall south of Brownsville, Texas, early next week. This solution assumes the trough of low pressure moving across the Midwest U.S. late this week will not be strong enough to turn Gustav to the north. The other models predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Gustav northward, and foresee a landfall on the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Texas border 6-8 days from now. The GFDL is the fastest, bringing Gustav to New Orleans on Sunday afternoon. This is a plausible forecast, but at this point, virtually any point along the Gulf Coast has a roughly equal chance of a direct hit by Gustav.

Which set of model should we trust? I plotted up the errors for some of the computer model forecasts made during Fay. While Fay was over Hispaniola and Cuba, the GFDL model made the best track forecasts, among the four main models used by NHC: GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, and UKMET. This makes me more inclined to trust the GFDL model’s forecasts for Gustav, since Fay and Gustav are similar storms.

I’ve run the GFDL (hit the FWD button to play the animation) out a few days, see the image up top, and it really does not look good for New Orleans. However, as I’ve said before, models are not forecasts. This storm could still impact virtually anyone on the Gulf of Mexico.

Related posts:
Hurricane Gustav Reaches Category Dangerous 3 Strength – Continues to Strenghten
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Rapid Strengthening Still Expected for Gustav – Models Focus on New Orleans Area
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National Hurricane Center Confirms that Gustav Has Regained Hurricane Strength
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Tropical Storm Fay Parks Off Florida Coast – Could Still Reach Hurricane Strength
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