Tropical Storm Fay: Where is it Going Next?
by John Little on 19/08/2008
The computer models have mostly been in agreement (and quite accurate) this season but, as Dr. Jeff Masters points out, they’re all over the map with Fay:
The computer models continue to disagree on the long-term path of Fay. Most of the models now agree that the trough of low pressure pulling the storm to the north will not be strong enough to finish the job. Fay will probably be left behind by the trough, and forced westward by a ridge of high pressure expected to build in. The official NHC forecast keeps Fay over Florida and turns the storm to the west over southern Georgia. However, most of the models expect this turn to occur further south, and have been trending further south in recent runs. I give Fay a 60% chance surviving its traverse over Florida, then turning back to the west over the northern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. This would allow the storm to regenerate, before potentially making landfall again along the northern Gulf Coast between New Orleans and the Florida Panhandle early next week. The GFDL has the rather unnerving solution of pushing Fay out into the Atlantic Wednesday, intensifying it to a strong Category 2 hurricane that then hits the Georgia/Florida border region Friday night. The HWRF is similar, but foresees that Fay will only be a 50-55 mph tropical storm when it hits Georgia. Given the rather high levels of wind shear (15-20 knots) predicted to be over Fay late this week, plus Fay’s recent inability to build an eyewall in the 24 hours it had over the Florida Straits, I am discounting the GFDL model’s solution of a hurricane hitting Georgia. However, Fay may push out to into the Atlantic far enough to regenerate some on Thursday or Friday, before it is forced back west again over northern Florida or southern Georgia.
A track over the Gulf of Mexico would present the worst case scenario for this storm since it’s warm waters would present Fay will an opportunity to strengthen. You can follow Fay with my collection of hurricane resources.
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