Blogs of War

Richard Holbrooke and Ronald Asmus summarize the challenges presented by Russia’s actions in Georgia:

This moment could well mark the end of an era in Europe during which realpolitik and spheres of influence were supposed to be replaced by cooperative norms and a country’s right to choose its own path. Hopes for a more liberal Russia under President Dmitry Medvedev will need to be reexamined. His justification for this invasion reads more like Brezhnev than Gorbachev. While no one wants a return to cold war-style confrontation, Russia’s behavior poses a direct challenge to European and international order.

What can the west do? First, Georgia deserves the west’s solidarity and support. The west must get the fighting stopped and preserve Georgia’s territorial integrity within its current international border. As soon as hostilities cease, there should be a major, coordinated transatlantic effort to help Tbilisi rebuild and recover.

Second, we should not pretend that Russia is a neutral peacekeeper in conflicts on its borders. Russia is part of the problem, not the solution. For too long, Moscow has used existing international mandates to pursue neo-imperial policies. The west must disavow these mandates and insist on truly neutral international forces, under the UN, to monitor a future ceasefire and to mediate.

Third, the west needs to counter Russian pressure on its neighbours, especially Ukraine – most likely the next target in Moscow’s efforts to create a new sphere of hegemony. The US and the European Union must be clear that Ukraine and Georgia will not be condemned to some kind of grey zone.

Finally, the US and the EU must make clear that this kind of aggression will affect relations and Russia’s standing in the west. While western military intervention in Georgia is out of the question – and no one wants a 21st-century version of the cold war – Russia’s actions cannot be ignored.

Realpolitik and political realism don’t always prevail but it’s naive in the extreme to wish those forces away. This war, a wake up call for Western diplomats, should usher in an intense round of analysis and foreign policy adjustments which account for a Russia that operates with a realism that places it ethically somewhere between an apolitical crime syndicate and the Cold War era Soviet Union. To succeed we’ll have to challenge this streak of exploitable Western naivete that we just can’t seem to shake.

Update:
Ronald Asmus three weeks before the war:

Many in the West are tempted to look the other way. This crisis is, after all, inconvenient. Georgian democracy is far from perfect, and Tbilisi has certainly made its own mistakes. Russia has a new president who we all hope can be more liberal and open to the West. The United States and its allies also need Moscow to be aligned with the West in the United Nations on issues from Iran to North Korea to Zimbabwe. This is an awkward time to take a tough stance. It would be only too easy to equivocate, blame all parties a little and call for more diplomacy.

But this approach is making war in the Caucasus more likely, not less so.

If the Rose Revolution fails, we will wait a generation or more for another chance for positive change. Critical principles, including sovereignty and territorial integrity, are at stake. Russia is seeking to redefine the rules of post-Cold War European security to its advantage. And as Georgia is considered a U.S. project, the prestige of the United States is on the line. The Rose Revolution was animated by American values. Tbilisi has pursued U.S.-style economic reforms, has soldiers in Iraq and wants to join NATO. The region is waiting to see whether and when Washington will step in. If the West doesn’t try to stop Russia’s overstepping, countries in the region — from Azerbaijan to Central Asian energy producers — will recalculate accordingly.

Again, I think it’s time for all involved to recalculate.

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