Monthly Archives: July 2008

Tropical Storm Dolly: Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches Issued for Texas

They were just issued by the National Hurricane Center:

…DOLLY NOW OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO…

AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE NORTHWARD TO PORT O’CONNOR. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT…A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O’CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

Prepare now while lines are short and supplies are plentiful.

Tropical Storm Dolly: Hurricane Threat to Texas on the Rise

Folks along the Texas Gulf Coast should monitor this storm closely:

The surface center of Dolly is reforming a bit further to the north of the storm, near the heaviest thunderstorm activity. This will require a northward adjustment to the track forecast, increasing the danger to Texas. The models are pretty united in forecasting a track towards the Texas/Mexico border over the next two days, with a decrease in forward speed. Some significant uncertainty creeps into the forecast for Wednesday, when steering currents weaken and the models have differing solutions on the orientation and strength of the ridge of high pressure steering Dolly. The latest GFDL and HWRF models runs from 2 am EDT this morning have shifted significantly north, bringing Dolly ashore near Corpus Christi, Texas. The GFDL shows a very large borderline Category 1/2 hurricane, with tropical storm force winds extending from Galveston to Brownsville at landfall. Dolly will probably grow quite large and affect a 200-mile stretch of coast with tropical storm-force winds. Like her namesake, actress Dolly Parton, Dolly the tropical cyclone appears destined to become a media star.

You can see a synopsis of the forecast models at Weather Underground. Bear in mind that these models shift almost hourly. Again, this is an excellent time to prepare for the hurricane season if you haven’t already. The rush for building supplies, food, water, and other goods will likely kick in within 24 hours along parts of Texas.

Eyes on the Gulf: Tropical Storm Dolly Approaches the Gulf of Mexico

154013W sm Eyes on the Gulf: Tropical Storm Dolly Approaches the Gulf of Mexico

It’s time for residents of the Texas Gulf Coast to start keeping an eye on this emerging storm. I’ve added some of my favorite weather links to the top of the page and I’ll likely keep them there through the remainder of the hurricane season. One trusted resource, available though the “Weather Blogs” link is Dr. Jeff Master’s Wunderblog. His latest update:

The upper-level low that prevented Dolly from developing a closed circulation has weakened considerably over the past day, and will continue to weaken and slide southwestward out of Dolly’s way today. This will create a low-shear environment for Dolly to intensify in. With very warm waters of 28.5°C ahead of it extending to great depth, Dolly is expected to intensify right up until landfall tonight over the Yucatan Peninsula. It is unlikely Dolly has time to reach hurricane status today, but a 60 mph tropical storm is possible tonight at landfall. Passage over the Yucatan will disrupt Dolly, which should need a day or so to recover once it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico. Steering currents will weaken once it does emerge, and Dolly will probably have at least two days over the warm waters of the Gulf before making landfall near the Texas/Mexico border Wednesday night or Thursday morning. This may allow Dolly to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico, as predicted by the GFDL model. Rainfall amounts at landfall in Texas and northern Mexico are predicted to be in the 2-8″ range, according to the HWRF and GFDL models.

While the projections are useful, these storms often have minds of their own. Keep an eye on Dolly if you live anywhere on the Gulf Coast. This is also a good opportunity to prepare for the season if you haven’t already.