Bill Kristol riffs off of a letter received from a young member of the GOP who stated “I just have to say that Republicans are a dumb party that chooses stupid candidates. With the exception of McCain.” and looks at why McCain just might succeed while the party fails:
If you talk to political pros in D.C. these days, you’ll hear them say that “gravity” — voters’ apparently settled low opinion of the Republican Party — will eventually drag McCain down. Perhaps. But we know that a Republican presidential candidate can win as his party loses.
From 1968 through 1988, we had six presidential elections. During that time, Democrats won the Congressional vote by an average of more than 10 points; they controlled the House of Representatives for all of that period, and the Senate for most of it. But the Republican presidential candidate won five of those six contests — four of them (1972, 1980, 1984 and 1988) easily. This year’s election could see a return to this cold-war model — a strong-on-national-security and supporter-of-middle-American-values Republican presidential candidate prevailing, while at the same time voters choose a Democratic Congress. Last week’s developments — in West Virginia, Sacramento and Jerusalem — have increased the odds of such an outcome.
Watching Obama stumble so badly on foreign policy issues has bolstered my confidence. McCain’s savior is the imminent threat posed by Islamic extremism and the general perception of global instability contrasted with Obama’s inexperience and his apparent problems with middle-American values. Likeability is a great asset on the campaign trail but issues of competence and security weigh heavy on the voter’s mind once they step into the booth.
Update:
Mark Halperin calls Kristol a cockeyed optimist.
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