Rasmussen: Obama Has Triggered a Political Earthquake
by John Little on 7/01/2008Most observers thought that Iowa would be important for Obama, and that he’d get a bit of a bounce with a victory, but we’re witnessing fundamental changes in the race:
He is now poised to win a sizable victory in New Hampshire, a state that Hillary Clinton once considered her firewall. Another pillar of Clinton’s strength in the race—her lead in the national polls—is also crumbling. Monday’s update of the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Clinton’s advantage shrinking to its lowest level since the very first Presidential debate took place this season, more than eight months ago.
One measure highlighting the magnitude of the changed dynamics can be found in data from the Rasmussen Markets. Closing prices the day before Iowa implied that Clinton had a 65% chance of winning the nomination and Obama was given a 29% chance. At 9:00 a.m. Eastern on the day before New Hampshire, those numbers have reversed—Obama is given a 63% chance of winning while Clinton’s prospects have dwindled to 34% (current prices: Obama 100.0 %, Clinton 0.0 %).
The big question is what happens next. It would be foolish to assume that Obama will cruise to the nomination unchallenged by the formidable Clinton campaign team. Instead, it seems likely that Clinton will look ahead to Super Tuesday, February 5, when more than twenty states compete. That strategy would concede South Carolina to Obama but give Clinton time to re-shape her message, attempt to re-define Obama, and establish a new level of expectations for defining victory.
Calling the race for Obama would indeed be foolish. He might be able to run with this momentum but he is entering new and unforgiving territory where even the slightest mistake could spell disaster. He faces an effective political opportunist backed by powerful political machine in Hillary. If Obama opens the door just a crack she’ll put those ankles to work and kick it in.
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