Hurricane Felix Reaches Category 5 – Hurricane Hunters Abort Flight
by John Little on 2/09/2007Storms seem to be intensifying way faster than the models are predicting this year. Felix is already unbelievably dangerous:
reports from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Felix has intensified and is now a category five hurricane. The aircraft reported peak flight-level winds of 152 kt…with peak SFMR winds of 142 kt in the southwest quadrant. Higher SFMR winds were found in the northeast quadrant…up to 163 kt…but these may have been contaminated by groupel. A dropsonde released in the southwest quadrant landed in the northeast quadrant…and this drop yielded a surface estimate of 139 kt based on the lowest 150 M layer average. Based on these data…the peak surface winds are estimated to be at least 145 kt. An eye sonde measured a surface pressure of 936 mb with surface winds of 24 kt. Because of the extreme turbulence and groupel that the aircraft experienced…the mission is being aborted and the aircraft is returning to St. Croix.
I love storms but I wouldn’t want to be anywhere near 200mph gusts and 15-30 foot waves. It can still intensify too but a quick look at the NHC Wind Speed Probability Table reveals nothing but unknowns:
The database excludes unnamed tropical depressions. NA or TF indicates data not available. This may occur when the storm intensity is at a threshold where too few (<10) similar forecasts occurred during the sample period (1988-1997). Results would be unreliable and are therefore not shown.
We appear to be in Rumsfeld territory with this one.
Update:
There’s no time to waste in Belize. Thankfully, it looks like the government and citizens there seem to be on the ball:
Government is preparing for an emergency very seriously.
Police announced that all officers are to report to work tomorrow at 6 am – no excuses.
Advice to get out of harm’s way are coming over radio all evening.I’ll evacuate tomorrow morning. Will try to maintain contact but can’t guarantee anything.
Several neighbors are staying in homes that are a few rows off the beach. The homes are strong, and if their nerves hold up these folks will probably manage to be ok.
Those of us from the cayes are concerned about what happens if we evacuate and can’t get back to the island – but one day at a time.
Phone lines out of country are busy a lot now – so we are already loosing communications.
Texans should keep an eye on Felix as well:
Felix is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula and head out over the Gulf of Mexico, according to NHC forecasts.
Any potential direct impact on the United States would come no sooner than Friday or Saturday along the Texas coast, said CNN meteorologist Jacqui Jeras.
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