I had questions about the Russian-Iranian relationship and Kissinger has answers:
Russia’s position is more complex. Probably no country — not even the US — fears an Iranian nuclear capability more than Russia, whose large Islamic population lies just north of the borders of Iran. No country is more exposed to the seepage of Iranian nuclear capabilities into terrorist hands or to the jihadist ideological wave that the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, encourages. For that very reason, Russia does not want to unleash Iranian hostility on itself without a prospect of probable success.
In addition, Russian attitudes towards the United States have undergone a significant change. There is a lessened commitment to strategic partnership. Suspicion has grown on both sides. The United States fears that Russia is striving to rebuild its imperial influence in what Russia calls the “near-abroad”; Russia believes that America is seeking to pressure the Kremlin to change its domestic policies and to reduce Russia’s international influence.
Because of its conviction that Iran will be a formidable adversary and its low assessment of the American effort in Iraq, the Kremlin doubts that the US has the staying power for a prolonged confrontation with Iran and chooses to avoid manning barricades on which it may be left alone. In consequence, Moscow has shifted its emphasis towards Europe and, on Iran, operationally shares Europe’s hesitation. The difference is that if matters reach a final crunch, Russia is more likely to take a stand, especially when an Iranian nuclear capability begins to look inevitable, even more when it emerges as imminent.
I knew most of this already but for some reason it never occured to me that Russia would fear Iran that much. It probably should have. I also think he’s right about Russia taking a stand if things turn ugly. It’s possible we might find ourselves in a shakey WWII-style alliance again before all of this is over. Who knows? The only prediction I feel comfortable making at this point is that just about everything is going to get worse.
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