Blogs of War

Herschel Smith takes a look at the recent Anbar controversy (Gen. Pace seems to have settled it) and finds a clear way forward:

But just as we should not overreact to the Devlin report, we should listen to it and heed its advice. I concur with Devlin’s remarks. The trend line for casualties in Iraq has a positive slope line (see Statistical Evaluation of Casualties in Iraq). I have commented here in The Consequences of Inadequate Force Projection that lack of force projection, along with rules of engagement that cause our troops to be hamstrung (with Marines reporting that “A lot of us feel like we have our hands tied behind our back“), are the two most serious impediments to victory in Anbar, and in fact, all of Iraq. With the current force projection and rules of engagement, the U.S. will not win.

As before, I say that the U.S. is getting out, or getting serious. Getting serious requires robust rules of engagement and proper force projection.

ABC News’ latest exclusive reveals information so painfully obvious (I hope) that it’s almost silly:

U.S. officials say they have found smoking-gun evidence of Iranian support for terrorists in Iraq: brand-new weapons fresh from Iranian factories. According to a senior defense official, coalition forces have recently seized Iranian-made weapons and munitions that bear manufacturing dates in 2006.

This suggests, say the sources, that the material is going directly from Iranian factories to Shia militias, rather than taking a roundabout path through the black market. “There is no way this could be done without (Iranian) government approval,” says a senior official.

Iranian-made munitions found in Iraq include advanced IEDs designed to pierce armor and anti-tank weapons. U.S. intelligence believes the weapons have been supplied to Iraq’s growing Shia militias from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which is also believed to be training Iraqi militia fighters in Iran.

Evidence is mounting, too, that the most powerful militia in Iraq, Moktada al-Sadr’s Mahdi army, is receiving training support from the Iranian-backed terrorists of Hezbollah.

At this point Democrats have to be wondering how they can slap a muzzle on someone with Pelosi’s visibility:

David Gregory: “Iraq’s worsening civil war will dominate the President’s meeting with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Concluding his visit to Estonia earlier today, Mr. Bush blamed the violence not on civil war but on Sunni terrorists.”

President Bush at a press conference in Estonia: “There’s a lot of sectarian violence taking place, fomented in my opinion because of these attacks by al Qaeda, causing people to seek reprisal. And we will work with the Maliki government to defeat these elements.”

Gregory: “Back in Washington, incoming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi disagreed, warning that such rhetoric about al Qaeda will make it harder for Democrats to work with the White House.”

Incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi: “The 9/11 Commission dismissed that notion a long time ago and I feel sad that the President is resorting to it again.”

She seems determined to give Howard Dean and O.J. Simpson a run for their money.

It looks like the Brits may be working with a short list of suspects:

Passengers have been asked to come forward after radiation traces were found on two BA planes linked to the death of former Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko.

The BA 767 planes operate on routes within Europe and up to 800 passengers on four flights may have been affected.

A statement from the airline said: “BA has been advised that three of its Boeing 767 short haul aircraft have been identified by the UK Government as part of the investigation into the death of Alexander Litvinenko.

The flights involved are surely making Putin and friends a little nervous:

• BA875 Moscow-Heathrow on October 25 – aircraft number GBNWX
• BA872 Heathrow-Moscow on October 28 – aircraft number GBNWX
• BA873 Moscow-Heathrow on October 31 – aircraft number GBNWB
• BA874 Heathrow-Moscow on November 3 – aircraft number GBZHA

In the name of God, the Compassionate, the Merciful

O, Almighty God, bestow upon humanity the perfect human being promised to all by You, and make us among his followers.

Noble Americans,

Were we not faced with the activities of the US administration in this part of the world and the negative ramifications of those activities on the daily lives of our peoples, coupled with the many wars and calamities caused by the US administration as well as the tragic consequences of US interference in other countries;

Were the American people not God-fearing, truth-loving, and justice-seeking, while the US administration actively conceals the truth and impedes any objective portrayal of current realities;

And if we did not share a common responsibility to promote and protect freedom and human dignity and integrity;

Then, there would have been little urgency to have a dialogue with you.

While Divine providence has placed Iran and the United States geographically far apart, we should be cognizant that human values and our common human spirit, which proclaim the dignity and exalted worth of all human beings, have brought our two great nations of Iran and the United States closer together.

Both our nations are God-fearing, truth-loving and justice-seeking, and both seek dignity, respect and perfection.

Both greatly value and readily embrace the promotion of human ideals such as compassion, empathy, respect for the rights of human beings, securing justice and equity, and defending the innocent and the weak against oppressors and bullies.

We are all inclined towards the good, and towards extending a helping hand to one another, particularly to those in need.

We all deplore injustice, the trampling of peoples’ rights and the intimidation and humiliation of human beings.

We all detest darkness, deceit, lies and distortion, and seek and admire salvation, enlightenment, sincerity and honesty.

The pure human essence of the two great nations of Iran and the United States testify to the veracity of these statements.

Noble Americans,

Our nation has always extended its hand of friendship to all other nations of the world.

Hundreds of thousands of my Iranian compatriots are living amongst you in friendship and peace, and are contributing positively to your society. Our people have been in contact with you over the past many years and have maintained these contacts despite the unnecessary restrictions of US authorities.

As mentioned, we have common concerns, face similar challenges, and are pained by the sufferings and afflictions in the world.

We, like you, are aggrieved by the ever-worsening pain and misery of the Palestinian people. Persistent aggressions by the Zionists are making life more and more difficult for the rightful owners of the land of Palestine. In broad day-light, in front of cameras and before the eyes of the world, they are bombarding innocent defenseless civilians, bulldozing houses, firing machine guns at students in the streets and alleys, and subjecting their families to endless grief.

No day goes by without a new crime.

Palestinian mothers, just like Iranian and American mothers, love their children, and are painfully bereaved by the imprisonment, wounding and murder of their children. What mother wouldn’t?

For 60 years, the Zionist regime has driven millions of the inhabitants of Palestine out of their homes. Many of these refugees have died in the Diaspora and in refugee camps. Their children have spent their youth in these camps and are aging while still in the hope of returning to homeland.

You know well that the US administration has persistently provided blind and blanket support to the Zionist regime, has emboldened it to continue its crimes, and has prevented the UN Security Council from condemning it.

Who can deny such broken promises and grave injustices towards humanity by the US administration?

Governments are there to serve their own people. No people wants to side with or support any oppressors. But regrettably, the US administration disregards even its own public opinion and remains in the forefront of supporting the trampling of the rights of the Palestinian people.

Let’s take a look at Iraq. Since the commencement of the US military presence in Iraq, hundreds of thousands of Iraqis have been killed, maimed or displaced. Terrorism in Iraq has grown exponentially. With the presence of the US military in Iraq, nothing has been done to rebuild the ruins, to restore the infrastructure or to alleviate poverty. The US Government used the pretext of the existence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, but later it became clear that that was just a lie and a deception.

Although Saddam was overthrown and people are happy about his departure, the pain and suffering of the Iraqi people has persisted and has even been aggravated.

In Iraq, about one hundred and fifty thousand American soldiers, separated from their families and loved ones, are operating under the command of the current US administration. A substantial number of them have been killed or wounded and their presence in Iraq has tarnished the image of the American people and government.

Their mothers and relatives have, on numerous occasions, displayed their discontent with the presence of their sons and daughters in a land thousands of miles away from US shores. American soldiers often wonder why they have been sent to Iraq.

I consider it extremely unlikely that you, the American people, consent to the billions of dollars of annual expenditure from your treasury for this military misadventure.

Noble Americans,

You have heard that the US administration is kidnapping its presumed opponents from across the globe and arbitrarily holding them without trial or any international supervision in horrendous prisons that it has established in various parts of the world. God knows who these detainees actually are, and what terrible fate awaits them.

You have certainly heard the sad stories of the Guantanamo and Abu-Ghraib prisons. The US administration attempts to justify them through its proclaimed “war on terror.” But every one knows that such behavior, in fact, offends global public opinion, exacerbates resentment and thereby spreads terrorism, and tarnishes the US image and its credibility among nations.

The US administration’s illegal and immoral behavior is not even confined to outside its borders. You are witnessing daily that under the pretext of “the war on terror,” civil liberties in the United States are being increasingly curtailed. Even the privacy of individuals is fast losing its meaning. Judicial due process and fundamental rights are trampled upon. Private phones are tapped, suspects are arbitrarily arrested, sometimes beaten in the streets, or even shot to death.

I have no doubt that the American people do not approve of this behavior and indeed deplore it.

The US administration does not accept accountability before any organization, institution or council. The US administration has undermined the credibility of international organizations, particularly the United Nations and its Security Council. But, I do not intend to address all the challenges and calamities in this message.

The legitimacy, power and influence of a government do not emanate from its arsenals of tanks, fighter aircrafts, missiles or nuclear weapons. Legitimacy and influence reside in sound logic, quest for justice and compassion and empathy for all humanity. The global position of the United States is in all probability weakened because the administration has continued to resort to force, to conceal the truth, and to mislead the American people about its policies and practices.

Undoubtedly, the American people are not satisfied with this behavior and they showed their discontent in the recent elections. I hope that in the wake of the mid-term elections, the administration of President Bush will have heard and will heed the message of the American people.

My questions are the following:

Is there not a better approach to governance?

Is it not possible to put wealth and power in the service of peace, stability, prosperity and the happiness of all peoples through a commitment to justice and respect for the rights of all nations, instead of aggression and war?

We all condemn terrorism, because its victims are the innocent.

But, can terrorism be contained and eradicated through war, destruction and the killing of hundreds of thousands of innocents?

If that were possible, then why has the problem not been resolved?

The sad experience of invading Iraq is before us all.

What has blind support for the Zionists by the US administration brought for the American people? It is regrettable that for the US administration, the interests of these occupiers supersedes the interests of the American people and of the other nations of the world.

What have the Zionists done for the American people that the US administration considers itself obliged to blindly support these infamous aggressors? Is it not because they have imposed themselves on a substantial portion of the banking, financial, cultural and media sectors?

I recommend that in a demonstration of respect for the American people and for humanity, the right of Palestinians to live in their own homeland should be recognized so that millions of Palestinian refugees can return to their homes and the future of all of Palestine and its form of government be determined in a referendum. This will benefit everyone.

Now that Iraq has a Constitution and an independent Assembly and Government, would it not be more beneficial to bring the US officers and soldiers home, and to spend the astronomical US military expenditures in Iraq for the welfare and prosperity of the American people? As you know very well, many victims of Katrina continue to suffer, and countless Americans continue to live in poverty and homelessness.

I’d also like to say a word to the winners of the recent elections in the US:

The United States has had many administrations; some who have left a positive legacy, and others that are neither remembered fondly by the American people nor by other nations.

Now that you control an important branch of the US Government, you will also be held to account by the people and by history.

If the US Government meets the current domestic and external challenges with an approach based on truth and Justice, it can remedy some of the past afflictions and alleviate some of the global resentment and hatred of America. But if the approach remains the same, it would not be unexpected that the American people would similarly reject the new electoral winners, although the recent elections, rather than reflecting a victory, in reality point to the failure of the current administration’s policies. These issues had been extensively dealt with in my letter to President Bush earlier this year.

To sum up:

It is possible to govern based on an approach that is distinctly different from one of coercion, force and injustice.

It is possible to sincerely serve and promote common human values, and honesty and compassion.

It is possible to provide welfare and prosperity without tension, threats, imposition or war.

It is possible to lead the world towards the aspired perfection by adhering to unity, monotheism, morality and spirituality and drawing upon the teachings of the Divine Prophets.

Then, the American people, who are God-fearing and followers of Divine religions, will overcome every difficulty.

What I stated represents some of my anxieties and concerns.

I am confident that you, the American people, will play an instrumental role in the establishment of justice and spirituality throughout the world. The promises of the Almighty and His prophets will certainly be realized, Justice and Truth will prevail and all nations will live a true life in a climate replete with love, compassion and fraternity.

The US governing establishment, the authorities and the powerful should not choose irreversible paths. As all prophets have taught us, injustice and transgression will eventually bring about decline and demise. Today, the path of return to faith and spirituality is open and unimpeded.

We should all heed the Divine Word of the Holy Qur’an:

“But those who repent, have faith and do good may receive Salvation. Your Lord, alone, creates and chooses as He will, and others have no part in His choice; Glorified is God and Exalted above any partners they ascribe to Him.” (28:67-68)

I pray to the Almighty to bless the Iranian and American nations and indeed all nations of the world with dignity and success.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
President of the Islamic Republic of Iran
29 November 2006

Interesting:

North Korea and the United States have agreed to resume the long-stalled six-party talks on Pyongyang’s nuclear issue “as soon as possible,” it was announced here on Wednesday.

The breakthrough came during talks brokered by China. Top negotiators of the three countries held several rounds of bilateral and trilateral talks in Beijing from Tuesday to Wednesday, exchanging views “frankly and in an in-depth way”, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said.

North Korea and the United States agreed to resume the six-party talks on the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue as soon as possible, the ministry said without giving a firm date.

I guess the writing was on the wall but I fail to see what this will accomplish in the long-term:

ABC News has learned that Pentagon officials are considering a major strategic shift in Iraq, to move U.S. forces out of the dangerous Sunni-dominated al-Anbar province and join the fight to secure Baghdad.

The news comes as President Bush prepares to meet with Iraq’s president to discuss the growing sectarian violence.

There are now 30,000 U.S. troops in al-Anbar, mainly Marines, braving some of the fiercest fighting in Iraq. At least 1,055 Americans have been killed in this region, making al-Anbar the deadliest province for American troops.

And then what do we do with a province that can arm itself to the teeth and take the fight to our troops elsewhere? Just sit in Baghdad and hope that they won’t? I’m sure that this is an attempt to buy some time and ultimately leave the al-Anbar fight to the Iraqis. I’m just not sure that it will grant us the leverage that we’re looking for. Perhaps the most discouraging part of the whole article is this statment:

“If we are not going to do a better job doing what we are doing out [in al-Anbar], what’s the point of having them out there?” said a senior military official.

I guess that pretty much says it all.

Update:
This is generating a lot of email. Most of which is off the record. But everyone seems to be falling into one of two camps. You either see this as the first stage of a total withdrawal or think we may be preparing for a big (but likely final) push. I’m not terribly optimistic but I hope I’m surprised.

Update II:
Gen. Pace says no way:

Asked specifically whether serious consideration is being given to the idea of abandoning Al-Anbar to put more U.S. forces in Baghdad, Pace bluntly replied “no.”

“You gave me a very straight question. I gave you a very straight answer. No. Why would we want to forfeit any part of Iraq to the enemy? We don’t,” he told reporters at a Pentagon briefing.

“It is our goal to turn over every province in Iraq to the Iraq security forces under the command and control of the Iraq government. That is our goal. There is no immediate thought to moving all coalition forces out of Al Anbar province and turning over right now today all security in Al Anbar to Iraqi security forces. It’s not on the table,” he added.

Hot Air: Devlin’s memo is causing some buzz around the ’sphere today, notably at INDC Journal, where Bill is getting set to embed with the Corps in Anbar assuming they’re still there come December, and at the Fourth Rail, where Bill Roggio fisks WaPo’s treatment of Devlin’s report in an attempt to show that they slanted the thing deliberately. He makes a good case, but the ABC story makes it considerably harder to believe.

The Captain’s Journal: For reasons that I cannot discuss at this time, I believe that there is some possibility, however remote it may seem to the reader, that we are cordoning off the Anbar Province (and in particular Ramadi), in order to prepare an assault later “Fallujah-style.” More Marine patrols where they are getting sniper attacks is not adding to security. We are either getting out, or we’re getting serious.

Kishkushim: Anbar province illustrates the pitfalls of the policy of regime change. The “failed province” is likely to become a staging area for attacks on US forces, the Iraqi central government, as well as on Saudi Arabia and Jordan. At the same time, as Iraq becomes more and more Iranian, the Saudis and others might be tempted to use the province as a buffer. In any case, it is unlikely that the flow of guns and fighters into and out of Anbar – no doubt much of them through Syria – will stop soon. It does not look like the US can afford to back any of the factions in the province; most of them would probably not be very interested in such a deal anyway. On the other hand, the US would probably be reluctant to support Shi’a efforts to crush the insurgents there, because this could very well play into Iran’s hands.\

Born at the Crest of the Empire: Appreciate this for a moment. On the same day that Bush blamed Al Qaeda for inciting the violence in Iraq, the Pentagon is contemplating abandoning the province from which they are launching attacks.

The Fourth Rail: Lost in the current debate over Iraq – civil war or sectarian violence, success or failure, increasing troops or strategic redeployment, victory or defeat – is the sea-change occurring in western Iraq. The U.S. military has coaxed a large majority of the Sunnis of Anbar province, perhaps one of the most sympathetic groups to al-Qaeda in the Middle East, to turn on al-Qaeda. The choice wasn’t difficult after the tribes saw what al-Qaeda had to offer – death, torture, Taliban like sharia, humiliation, destruction of commerce. The relationship and intelligence gained form operating in western Iraq will benefit the west during the Long War – if the U.S. doesn’t withdrawal precipitously and leave the Anbar tribes to the predations of al-Qaeda in Iraq.

It’s old news really – but still entertaining:

John F. Kerry’s dead-last ranking in a poll of 2008 White House contenders has pundits saying he’s down for the count, but the beleaguered senator’s camp insists he’s still in the fight – and that’s no joke.

The Quinnipiac University popularity rankings – based on interviews with 1,600 voters – come as Kerry struggles to recover from his “botched” attempt at humor when he made a reference to soldiers serving in Iraq.

Kerry ranked 20th out of 20 politicians, lagging far behind a slew of Democrats expected to seek the party’s 2008 nomination.

Sure it’s early but Kerry didn’t have any traction before his troop slam and there’s absolutely no reason to expect a massive shift in public opinion.

Houston has more to offer than cold margaritas and a hot rap music scene – Topnotch Taliban training grounds for illegal Pakistani “students” for example:

The U.S. Attorney’s office today announced that two Houston men have been indicted on charges that they conspired to aid the Taliban.

Kobie Diallo Williams, also known as Abdul Kabeer and Abdul Kabir, 33, a U.S. citizen and Houston resident, and Adnan Babar Mirza, 29, a Pakistani national who overstayed a student visa, are charged with conspiring to train with firearms with a goal to fight with the Taliban against coalition forces in the Middle East and providing approximately $350 in cash to support terrorist groups.

Mirza is also charged with three violations of federal firearms law. The four count indictment was returned under seal by a Houston grand jury last week and unsealed today after the appearance of both men before a U.S. magistrate judge.

“In this post 9/11 era, threats against our international security efforts are taken most seriously,” said U.S. Attorney DeGabrielle.

“While these subjects did not operate at a high level of sophistication in comparison with the 9/11 hijackers, the expressed goal was to aid the Taliban by training to carry out jihad against coalition troops in the Middle East,” said FBI Special Agent in Charge Roderick Beverly.

These two can best be described as not too bright but deadly serious:

The indictment alleges that Williams and Mirza viewed the United States and coalition military forces in Afghanistan and Iraq as invaders. They then agreed in April 2005 that they should travel to the Middle East to fight with the Taliban to engage in battlefield jihad, according to the indictment.

To hone their skills in anticipation for battlefield jihad, the indictment alleges Williams and Mirza agreed to train with firearms at various locations located in Harris and surrounding counties.

Michelle Malkin: “Just doing the job Americans won’t do.” And apparently helping to recruit at least one treasonous American to help him do it.

Herschel Smith is frustrated:

It is a remarkable thing to witness a general say that a particular province is “not under control” three and a half years into the war effort, and then to demur to the “more critical” city of Baghdad, presumably because it is the seat of government in Iraq. The point is that this question – and its remarkable answer – would never have been salient with the right number of troops. Said another way, only a lack of troop presence causes the need to shift resources from one location to another, while leaving the one to suffer and descend into anarchy. Is this clear enough?

…Finally, there is more to the concept of force projection than number of troops. Proper force projection also has to do with how the troops are used, i.e., their mission. I have previously noted that the Marines in the Anbar Province feel hamstrung by the rules of engagement, which have evolved over the war in Iraq. Further, having a troop presence, even with robust rules of engagement, is not the same thing as utilizing them. Camp Fallujah has at the present around 10,000 troops resident. Of those troops in the area, only 300 currently have a continual presence in Fallujah-proper, a city of 300,000. Note that this is a ratio 1000:1 Iraqis to Marines.

As Marines in Iraq expand into more advisory roles to Iraqi troops, the insurgency, by the use of criminal techniques, has become financially self-sufficient. The violence has not abated, there are daily retaliatory attacks by Sunni and Shia, and there is talk of civil war in Iraq. U.S. troops face the daily threat of sniper attacks, and the U.S. casualty rate in Iraq has a positive slope line. At least in part, these are the consequences of inadequate force projection.

It seems some are in agreement:

A newly updated classified Marine assessment by Col. Peter Devlin showed the complexity of the problem in its detailed look at Sunni-dominated Anbar province, where fighting in towns such as Fallujah and Ramadi has been among the most intense in the country. The memo concluded that al-Qaeda in Iraq, a group affiliated with Osama bin Laden’s terrorist network, is now the “dominant organization of influence” among the province’s 1.25 million people, and that a military or political defeat of the group was unlikely without a huge influx of troops and financial aid.

But as Herschel notes just sending troops and money won’t get the job done. They need the political backing, strategic decision-making, and rules of engagement that will allow them to get the job done.